珠三角地区至2050年土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响
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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1301101);国家自然科学(42330707,72221002)


Impacts of future land use change on biodiversity in the Pearl River Delta
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    摘要:

    人类活动引发的剧烈土地利用变化是导致生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素之一,明晰未来土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响对保护生物多样性、维持人类福祉具有重要意义。然而,目前的研究主要关注未来农田和城市扩张对生物多样性的影响,而忽略了其他土地利用变化对生物多样性的综合影响。基于不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和代表浓度路径(RCPs)耦合情景下的5种未来土地利用情景数据、物种丰富度数据等,结合“预测生态多样性对陆地系统变化的响应(PREDICTS)”数据库以及生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型等,系统评估了至2050年珠三角地区土地利用、物种丰富度和生境质量的变化;构建了综合生物多样性指数,探讨了未来土地利用变化对生物多样性的综合影响。研究发现:(1)未来珠三角地区主要的土地利用变化仍然是以侵占草地为主的建设用地扩张,且主要集中在中部平原区;而东北和西北低山丘陵区的土地利用变化主要是耕地和草地转为林地。(2)物种丰富度和生境质量之间存在协同关系,高值区及提升区主要分布在植被覆盖度较高的东北、西北和西南地区,而中部平原区由于建设用地扩张导致生境质量持续退化。(3)未来珠三角地区四分之三以上的地区综合生物多样性指数基本保持不变,而其他地区则以轻度或中度下降为主,表明未来珠三角地区整体生态质量可能有所恶化。研究可为未来珠三角地区制定科学的生态保护和土地利用管理政策提供科学参考,从而保障生态系统的可持续发展,为社会经济发展提供长期利益。

    Abstract:

    Dramatic land use change caused by human activities is one of the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Clarifying the impacts of future land use change on biodiversity is of paramount importance for preserving biodiversity and maintaining human well-being. However, the previous studies have primarily focused on the impacts of future agricultural and urban expansion on biodiversity, while ignoring the comprehensive effects of other land-use changes, such as woodland, grassland and wet land on biodiversity. Based on the species richness data and future land use data under the coupled scenarios of different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), this study systematically assessed the changing trends of land use, species richness, and habitat quality in the Pearl River Delta region from 2015 to 2050 by integrating the Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems (PREDICTS) as well as the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Then the study explored the combined impacts of future land use change on biodiversity by constructing a comprehensive biodiversity index. The results indicated that: (1) the primary type of future land use change under various scenarios in the Pearl River Delta region remained the expansion of built-up land, mainly encroaching on grasslands and concentrated in the central plain area. Conversely, land use changes in the hilly areas of the northeast and northwest primarily involved the conversion of cropland and grassland into woodland. These trends were mainly related to the setting of different SSP-RCP scenarios. (2) Species richness and habitat quality in the Pearl River Delta region exhibited a synergistic relationship and displayed similar spatial pattern changes. High-value areas and improvement areas mainly distributed in the northeastern, northwestern, and southwestern regions, which were characterized by abundant vegetation cover. In contrast, the central plain regions experienced degradation as the main trend due to the expansion of built-up land. (3) More than three-quarters of the Pearl River Delta region were projected to maintain relative stability in terms of the comprehensive biodiversity index. The other changing areas were characterized by slight or moderate declines, with fewer areas experiencing increases in the composite biodiversity index. This suggests that the overall ecological quality of the Pearl River Delta region may deteriorate in the future. The study can provide valuable references for the formulation of scientific ecological conservation and land use management policies in the Pearl River Delta region. This support aims to promote the sustainable development of the ecosystem and yield long-term benefits for socio-economic development.

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王鸣雷,邱思妍,史文娇.珠三角地区至2050年土地利用变化对生物多样性的影响.生态学报,2024,44(16):7183~7197

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