Abstract:It is crucial to elucidate the spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of trade-related carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin for formulating fair and effective emission reduction strategies and achieving the important goal of regional cooperation in emission reduction. This study utilizes a multi-regional input-output model to conduct an in-depth investigation into the composition of trade-related carbon emissions across nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin over a long period from 2007 to 2017, as well as the transfer pathways of these emissions at both provincial and industry levels. Through structural decomposition analysis, it tracks the influencing factors of trade-related carbon emissions within and outside the Yellow River Basin, revealing the heterogeneity of these factors. The results demonstrate that the overall carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin at the production end exceed those at the consumption end, resulting in a net outflow of trade-related carbon emissions. This outflow is primarily driven by the trade of intermediate inputs meeting production demands in other provinces. The region"s production supply and overall demand are shifting towards the central and western regions and the northeast, while decreasing towards southeastern coastal provinces and increasing towards the central and western regions and the northeast. Industries with a net outflow of trade-related carbon emissions are concentrated in mining and quarrying, petroleum and chemical industries, non-metallic mineral products, electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply, as well as transportation, warehousing, and postal services. These emissions predominantly flow into energy-intensive and capital-intensive industries. Structural decomposition analysis reveals that external final demand and local carbon intensity are the main factors affecting the outflow of trade-related carbon emissions, while internal final demand and external carbon intensity are the main factors affecting the inflow of trade-related carbon emissions. Additionally, production structure and final demand are key factors influencing trade-related carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, with the former acting as a suppressor and the latter primarily driving emissions. Therefore, the Yellow River Basin should strengthen guidance on production structure, promote the transformation and upgrading towards clean and low-carbon industries, and gradually transition from terminal low-carbon technology upgrades to intermediate production technology upgrades to reduce implicit carbon emissions. The findings of this study provide a reliable data foundation for setting emission reduction targets in the Yellow River Basin, aiding policymakers in formulating measures to reduce and control trade-related carbon emissions. Furthermore, the estimation and decomposition methods employed in this study can be widely applied to future research on related emissions in different regions and sectors, contributing to the achievement of regional-scale carbon reduction and pollution reduction goals.