基于随机森林分类模型填补森林资源连续清查缺失因子
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国家重点研发计划(2022YFE0112700);国家留学基金委国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(202306320489)


Filling missing factors for China's forest resources inventory based on random forest classification models
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    摘要:

    森林资源连续清查是评估林业生态建设成效和制定发展战略的重要依据。然而,由于监测体系和不同时期需求的升级,清查数据存在调查因子不连贯的问题。基于华东地区六省一市第六期至第九期清查数据,根据五个林分结构缺失因子和不同因子之间的相关性选取特征因子,采用随机森林分类模型填补缺失因子并分析特征因子的重要性。结果显示:(1)缺失因子和当期因子之间的相关系数普遍高于后期因子,其中植被类型、树种结构和其他相关因子的平均相关系数为0.868和0.733,显著高于其他三个缺失因子;(2)所有随机森林分类模型的准确度均达到0.770以上,并且在省级和县级尺度都具有出色的外部有效性,其中相关性系数高的缺失因子对应的模型准确度也相对更高;(3)特征因子重要性结果与相关性分析的结果基本吻合,显示特征因子组合中当期因子的占比高有助于提高模型填补性能,此外缺失因子本身对应的后一期数值对提高模型填补性能的贡献较大。研究可用于完善森林资源动态监测数据库,为科学评估我国生态保护建设成效以及完善森林分类经营管理制度提供支撑。在未来的研究中,基于国家森林高质量发展的基本策略,通过严密的实验设计评估我国森林分类经营制度的建设成效,对于完善我国森林生态效益补偿制度,建立稳定、健康、优质、高效的森林生态系统具有至关重要的作用。

    Abstract:

    Forest resource inventory is an important scientific basis for comprehensively understanding the effectiveness of China's forestry ecological construction and formulating forestry sustainable development strategies. However, due to updates in forestry monitoring systems and changing requirements for ecological environment construction over time, there are some missing factors existing in forest resource inventory. This study is based on the data from the sixth (1999-2003) to ninth (2014-2018) periods of forest resource continuous inventory in East China. First, we selected feature factors based on the results of correlation analysis of five forest stand structure factors including vegetation type, tree species composition, forest community structure, regeneration level, and naturalness. Then, we used random forest classification models to fill in the missing factors and assessed the accuracies of models, as well as examined the external validity of models. Finally, we analyzed the importance of feature factors. Our results show that: (1) the correlation coefficients between missing factors and factors from the same period are overall higher than those with factors from later periods. Among them, the average correlation coefficients between vegetation type and tree species composition and other related factors are 0.868 and 0.733, significantly higher than the other three missing factors; (2) overall, the random forest classification models achieve an accuracy of 0.770 or higher in all five missing factors, demonstrating outstanding external validity at both provincial and county scales. Moreover, models corresponding to factors with high correlation coefficients exhibit relatively higher accuracy (the accuracies of vegetation type and tree species composition are 0.900 and 0.841, respectively); and (3) the results of feature factor importance align closely with the findings of the correlation analysis, indicating that a higher proportion of the same-period factors within the feature factor combination contributes to enhancing the model imputation performance. Additionally, the missing factor itself exhibits a significant contribution to improving the model imputation performance in relation to the subsequent-period values. The findings of the study can be utilized to refine the dynamic monitoring database of forest resources, thereby providing support for a scientific evaluation of the effectiveness of China's forestry protection programs, and the enhancement of China's forest classification and management system. In future research, based on the fundamental strategy of promoting the high-quality development of national forests, rigorous experimental designs should be employed to evaluate the effectiveness of China's forest classification and management systems. This effort is crucial for refining our country's compensation mechanism for forestry ecological construction and establishing a stable, healthy, high-quality, and efficient forest ecosystem.

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周婷,徐含乐,徐奇刚,朱本挥,陆亚刚.基于随机森林分类模型填补森林资源连续清查缺失因子.生态学报,2024,44(18):8269~8282

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