Abstract:The imbalance between ecological endowments and economic development across China's provincial domains necessitates the establishment of an ecological compensation mechanism to promote the realization of ecological product values. This paper, based on the actual conditions of regional emissions and carbon sinks in China, decomposes the carbon gains and losses for each province into two primary components: inter-regional and intra-regional. Under the principles of tracing consumption-based emission responsibilities back to their sources and establishing compensation standards at production locations, a combined horizontal and vertical compensation approach is adopted to investigate inter-provincial ecological compensation in China. The main results are as follows: (1) Estimates of regional emissions and carbon sinks indicate that domestic demand-driven emissions have persistently accounted for over 70% of regional emissions, with inter-provincial emission responsibilities mainly stemming from self-sufficient production-consumption activities within provinces. Nationally, annual carbon sinks consistently range between 2500-2600 million metric tons, with forestlands and croplands being the principal sources. (2) Carbon gain and loss assessments reveal three typical regional types concerning inter-regional carbon balance: regions like Yunnan and Qinghai representing areas of inter-regional carbon neutrality; provinces such as Shandong and Guangdong exemplifying inter-regional carbon surplus regions; while Jiangsu and Shanghai standing for inter-regional carbon deficit areas. Intra-regional carbon dynamics exhibit clear resource-based and economic characteristics, with ecologically abundant regions like the Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang predominantly experiencing intra-regional carbon surpluses, whereas economically advanced regions like Jiangsu and Guangdong often suffering from intra-regional carbon deficits. (3) Estimations of industry-specific carbon reduction costs and regional compensation standards suggest that industries with higher carbon reduction costs tend to be low-carbon sectors, while those with lower carbon reduction costs typically belong to high-carbon industries. Technologically and economically advanced regions generally set higher compensation standards, while less-developed regions adopt lower ones. (4) The regional compensation demonstrates two distinct characteristics: first, there is a rapid growth in the scale of compensation, with the total national compensation volume increasing by 3.46 times during the research period; second, the spatial structure of compensation has evolved from a pattern where eastern regions compensate western regions to a fragmented configuration that lacks overall unity. The policy implications of this article are as follows: First, promoting the mechanism construction of tracing compensation responsibility of "consumption areas" and selecting compensation standards of "production areas". The compensation responsibility should be borne by the place where the products are consumed, and the regional compensation relationships should be constructed accordingly. When selecting compensation standards, the compensation standards should be chosen based on where the products are produced to calculate the compensation. Second, promoting the construction of a carbon ecological compensation model combining horizontal and vertical compensation. Horizontal compensation is committed to compensating for the interests with clear ecological profits and losses, while vertical compensation mainly aims to adjust the interests with unclear ecological profits and losses.