Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum is an endemic species to Europe. It was found to have invaded Henan Province in 2023. Due to its highly reproductive capacity and rapid growth, it could pose a threat to local agricultural production if it were to become widely invasive. It is imperative to predict the distribution of potential invasion risk areas in China in order to establish a comprehensive monitoring and early warning system. Based on its 453 occurrence records and 19 environmental factors for H. murinum subsp. leporinum, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate its fitness ecological niche, as well as to study the potential suitable distribution areas in China under the current and future climate change scenarios. Our results indicated that the mean annual temperature, seasonal variation of temperature, minimum temperature of coldest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the primary bioclimatic factors affecting the distribution of H. murinum subsp. leporinum. Under current climatic conditions, the total suitable area of the potentially geographical distribution of H. murinum subsp. leporinum would be 278.72×10⁴ km², accounting for about 29.03% of the national land area. The highly suitability habitats were mainly distributed in the Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan provinces. Future climate will become more conducive to the expansion of H. murinum subsp. leporinum than the current climate. The greatest increase occurs in the 2050s SSP245 scenario (7.97%). The highly and moderately suitable habitats were located in the areas of southwestern, central, eastern, and northwestern China with the greatest increases according to the 2050s SSP585 scenario (7.40%) and the 2070s SSP126 scenario (16.75%). In the future, plant quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the further invasion and spread of H. murinum subsp. leporinum from spreading outward from the Jiaozuo region. Meanwhile, it is essential to strengthen control measures for the introduction and transport of plants in central, southern, eastern and south-western China, to ensure that no plants are planted in susceptible regions and to raise public awareness of risk prevention.