新疆牧区半牧区温室气体排放及其减排效果研究
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中国人民大学生态环境学院

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中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”


Research on greenhouse gas emissions and emission reduction effects in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang
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1.School of Ecology &2.Environment, Renmin University of China

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Fund for Building World-Class Universities (disciplines) of Renmin University of China

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    摘要:

    畜牧业是主要的甲烷人为排放源之一,而牛的肠道发酵是中国畜牧业甲烷的重要排放源。精确评估反刍动物肠道发酵所排放的甲烷对畜牧业“双碳”目标的实现意义重大。新疆是中国四大牧区之一,为探究其牧区半牧区的畜牧业碳排放及减排效果,采用土地覆盖、植被类型、NPP、县级牛存栏量和牧业产值等多源数据,划分草地类型,估算其产草量和理论载畜量;对牛的空间分布特征进行分析预测,并选取新疆牛类的肠道甲烷排放因子对其肠道甲烷排放量进行核算;参照中国畜牧业排放构成比例,估算牧区半牧区畜牧业碳排放总量,估算畜牧业的草地和产值碳排放强度及其空间特征;结合2005年和2020年的碳排放强度估算结果,分析和评估新疆牧区半牧区畜牧业碳减排目标在不同地区的实现情况;根据2030年减排目标及牛存栏量灰色预测结果,估算2030年的畜牧业减排压力的空间分布特征和碳排放量。结果表明:(1)2020年新疆牧区半牧区畜牧业排放总量约为7068.06Gg CO2当量,其中牛肠道甲烷排放量为148.17 Gg;(2)新疆牧区半牧区畜牧业的草地和牧业产值碳排放强度的平均值分别为307.08 kg CO2当量/hm2和5519.81 kg CO2当量/万元,在平均水平上完成了2020年减排目标;(3)因空间上存在差异,分别有56.56%和38.23%的区域草地碳排放强度或产值碳排放强度未实现减排目标,阿尔泰山、天山、伊犁河谷等地的畜牧业减排压力严峻,建议加强草地保护、推动畜牧业绿色转型升级。

    Abstract:

    Animal husbandry is one of the main anthropogenic sources of methane emissions, and enteric fermentation of cattle is an important source of methane emissions in China's animal husbandry. To realize "dual carbon" goal, it is of great significance for animal husbandry industry to assess methane emissions from ruminants’ enteric fermentation accurately. In order to explore the status of animal husbandry’s carbon emissions and its reduction in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang, which is one of the four major pastoral areas in China, multi-source data such as land cover, vegetation type, NPP, cattle inventory and animal husbandry output at county level were used to classify grassland types, estimate grass yield and calculate theoretical carrying capacity of grassland; the spatial distribution characteristics of cattle was predicted and analyzed, and the methane emission factor of cattle’s enteric fermentation in Xinjiang was selected to calculate their methane emissions; referring to the emission composition ratio of China’s animal husbandry, the total carbon emissions of animal husbandry in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang were estimated; the spatial characteristics of animal husbandry carbon emission intensity of grassland and output were estimated respectively in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang; combining the calculation results of 2005 and 2020, the achievements of carbon emission reduction targets in animal husbandry of Xinjiang’s pastoral and semi-pastoral areas in different regions were analyzed and evaluated; based on the 2030 emission reduction target and grey prediction results of cattle inventory, the spatial distribution characteristics of emission reduction pressure by 2030 and carbon emissions of animal husbandry were estimated. The results show: (1) In 2020, The total emissions from animal husbandry in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang were approximately 7068.06Gg CO2eq, and methane emissions from cattle’s enteric fermentation were 148.17Gg; (2) The average carbon emission intensity of grassland and output from animal husbandry of Xinjiang’s pastoral and semi-pastoral areas were 307.08kg CO2eq/hm2 and 5519.81kg CO2eq/104 yuan respectively, achieving the 2020 emission reduction target at the average level; (3) Due to spatial difference, 56.56% of the area did not achieve the target to reduce grassland carbon emission intensity, and 38.23% of the area did not achieve the target to reduce output carbon emission intensity. The pressure to reduce carbon emissions from animal husbandry in places such as the Altai Mountains, the Tianshan Mountains and the Ili River Valley remains severe. It is recommended to strengthen grassland protection and promote animal husbandry’s green transition and upgrade.

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李海萍,李子瑄.新疆牧区半牧区温室气体排放及其减排效果研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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