Abstract:Animal husbandry is one of the main anthropogenic sources of methane emissions, and enteric fermentation of cattle is an important source of methane emissions in China's animal husbandry. To realize "dual carbon" goal, it is of great significance for animal husbandry industry to assess methane emissions from ruminants’ enteric fermentation accurately. In order to explore the status of animal husbandry’s carbon emissions and its reduction in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang, which is one of the four major pastoral areas in China, multi-source data such as land cover, vegetation type, NPP, cattle inventory and animal husbandry output at county level were used to classify grassland types, estimate grass yield and calculate theoretical carrying capacity of grassland; the spatial distribution characteristics of cattle was predicted and analyzed, and the methane emission factor of cattle’s enteric fermentation in Xinjiang was selected to calculate their methane emissions; referring to the emission composition ratio of China’s animal husbandry, the total carbon emissions of animal husbandry in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang were estimated; the spatial characteristics of animal husbandry carbon emission intensity of grassland and output were estimated respectively in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang; combining the calculation results of 2005 and 2020, the achievements of carbon emission reduction targets in animal husbandry of Xinjiang’s pastoral and semi-pastoral areas in different regions were analyzed and evaluated; based on the 2030 emission reduction target and grey prediction results of cattle inventory, the spatial distribution characteristics of emission reduction pressure by 2030 and carbon emissions of animal husbandry were estimated. The results show: (1) In 2020, The total emissions from animal husbandry in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of Xinjiang were approximately 7068.06Gg CO2eq, and methane emissions from cattle’s enteric fermentation were 148.17Gg; (2) The average carbon emission intensity of grassland and output from animal husbandry of Xinjiang’s pastoral and semi-pastoral areas were 307.08kg CO2eq/hm2 and 5519.81kg CO2eq/104 yuan respectively, achieving the 2020 emission reduction target at the average level; (3) Due to spatial difference, 56.56% of the area did not achieve the target to reduce grassland carbon emission intensity, and 38.23% of the area did not achieve the target to reduce output carbon emission intensity. The pressure to reduce carbon emissions from animal husbandry in places such as the Altai Mountains, the Tianshan Mountains and the Ili River Valley remains severe. It is recommended to strengthen grassland protection and promote animal husbandry’s green transition and upgrade.