"生态修复、城市修补"政策对城市碳排放的影响
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国家自然科学青年科学基金项目(72004014,72004199);重庆市自然科学青年科学基金项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0556)


The effect of "Ecological Restoration and Urban Repair" strategy on urban carbon emission
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    摘要:

    城市扩张所导致的绿地减少、生态环境退化等问题,影响碳达峰、碳中和(简称"双碳")目标的实现。"城市双修"通过对被破坏的城市自然生态系统的恢复与重建,有效发挥森林、草原、湿地和土壤的固碳作用,以及优化城市及社区更新方式,改变居民出行和生活方式,有助于城市碳汇能力提升和碳排放的降低。基于2005-2021年我国287个地级市的非平衡面板数据,运用交错双重差分模型 评估"生态修复、城市修补"(简称"城市双修")政策的碳减排效应。研究发现:(1)"城市双修"政策使城市碳排放显著降低了5.6%,但该效应有3年的滞后期;(2)机制分析揭示了城市绿地的增加是"城市双修"政策实现"双碳"目标的重要途径,绿地面积每增加1000hm2,城市碳排放降低1.5%;(3)异质性分析表明"城市双修"政策会扩大碳排放最高和最低城市之间的碳排放差距,城市的生态基础、财政基础以及政策执行力度会影响"城市双修"政策的碳减排效力,并对位于经济发达的东部地区的城市的碳减排助推作用更强。研究据此提出了充分总结推广试点经验、系统推进城市低碳转型、因地制宜开展"城市双修"工作等对策建议。

    Abstract:

    Urban expansion contributes to economic and social development, yet it also presents a range of ecological and environmental challenges. For example, urban expansion leads to the reduction of green spaces and ecological degradation, further contributing to significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions. To address these issues, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China has implemented the strategy of Ecological Restoration and Urban Repair (ERUR) since 2015. The strategy has introduced three groups of pilot cities and aims to leverage the carbon sequestration potential of forests, grasslands, wetlands, and soil by restoring and rebuilding disrupted urban ecosystems. It not only further reduces urban carbon emissions but also contributes substantially to climate change mitigation. This study considers the ERUR policy as an external shock and employs the Staggered Difference in Difference model (Staggered DID) to empirically evaluate its impact on urban carbon emissions. The results show that the policy has effectively reduced urban carbon emission by 5.6%. The mechanism analysis suggests that the policy primarily lowers urban carbon emissions by increasing urban green areas, thus achieving carbon reduction and sequestration. For every additional thousand hectares of green space, urban carbon emissions reduce by 1.5%. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the ERUR policy may increase the disparity in carbon emissions between cities with the highest and lowest emissions; The ecological foundation, financial basis, and the intensity of policy implementation can affect the effectiveness of the ERUR policy; In the developed eastern regions, the effect is stronger. This study contributes to existing knowledge in several ways: Firstly, contrasting with the predominantly qualitative focus of previous research, the study assesses the carbon emission reduction effect of ERUR policy quantitatively, thus offering a more specific and measurable evaluation of the policy's effects. Secondly, the study highlights the underlying mechanisms of urban ecological restoration policies, which is relatively underexplored in current research. Thirdly, the study uses a Changes-in-Changes model (CIC) to explore the policy's distributional impact on carbon reduction, shedding light on how policies may affect different cities and revealing potential inequalities brought by the climate policies.This study provides the following policy implications: Firstly, it's crucial to extend support to ongoing projects in ecologically vulnerable areas. During this process, the eastern regions could set a precedent, leading the way towards a nationwide embrace of low-carbon and sustainable urban transformation. Secondly, the planning of the ERUR policy could be intricately woven with the concept of low-carbon transformation. This involves strategically developing a portfolio of projects that align with the "Dual Carbon" goals, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of the ERUR policy. Thirdly, regional collaboration is necessary to offset carbon emissions linkage resulting from industrial transfers across regions. This means increasing support for ecological restoration through funding, technology, and skilled personnel, which further benefits the climate justice.

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董照樱子,孙思琪,夏楚瑜,周辰溪,赵晶,张蔚文."生态修复、城市修补"政策对城市碳排放的影响.生态学报,2024,44(14):6142~6153

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