It is of great significance for grassland management to investigate the future changes in the spatial distribution patterns of dominant species and grassland types in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under the global climate change. Using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), this study utilized species distribution data and dominant environmental variables to simulate and analyze potential suitable areas of dominant species in the alpine grassland and alpine meadows in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and their responses to climate change under different current and future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). The results were as follows: (1) The AUC values of MaxEnt for all the four studied species were > 0.9, indicating a good prediction effect. (2) The primary driving factors for Poa annua (P. annua) alpine grassland was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), while annual precipitation (bio12), Elevation (Elev), mean diurnal range (bio2), and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were important factors affecting the distribution of dominant species in the alpine grasslands and alpine meadows. Stipa purpurea (S. purpurea) alpine grassland, Carex parvula (C. parvula) alpine meadow, and Carex alatauensis (C. alatauensis) alpine meadow included. (3) Under future climate scenarios, some areas lost by P. annua alpine grassland will be transformed into suitable habitats for S. purpurea alpine grassland and C. alatauensis alpine meadow; furthermore, centroids of suitable areas for dominant species in alpine grasslands will shift southwestward. The potential suitable area of P. annua will expand under SSP370 scenario in mid-term period (2041-2060) and under SSP245 scenario long term period (2061-2080), but will decrease under other scenarios. The potential suitable area of S. purpurea will expand most significantly under the SSP370 scenario. The potential suitable areas of the dominant species in the alpine meadow tended to expand, and the center of mass migrated to the south, but will be lost only under the SSP585 scenario. This present study provided not only methodological reference for protecting species diversity and local animal husbandry production in this area, but also provided theoretical support for maintaining regional ecosystem balance.