The Yellow River Basin has a fragile ecological environment and is the most serious area of soil erosion in China. The vegetation plays an important role in the ecological restoration and protection of the region. Previous studies have been limited in examining the synergies between the drivers affecting vegetation change and the prediction of future trends. In this study, we used the dimidiate pixel model to invert the vegetation cover (FVC) from 1990 to 2022. Combining the methods of trend analysis, center of gravity migration, transfer matrix, and geodetector to analyze the spatial and temporal change characteristics of vegetation cover and the spatial heterogeneity of the influence of drivers on vegetation cover. The Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model was also used to predict future trends in vegetation. The results showed that: (1) the vegetation cover showed an upward trend over the past 30 years. The spatial distribution was characterized by high in the southeast and low in the northwest. The area with improved vegetation accounted for 47.17% of the total area of the watershed, and the trend of vegetation restoration in the central part of the watershed was obvious. (2) Vegetation change in the watershed was strongly influenced by precipitation, vegetation type, soil type, and land use type. Meanwhile, we revealed the most suitable range and type of driving factors affecting FVC changes. (3) The vegetation cover of the Yellow River Basin in 2040 will show an upward trend. The trend of vegetation is obvious recovery in the central area, and the vegetation has a trend of degradation in some areas of Qinghai Province. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for the ecological protection and restoration of the Yellow River Basin.