引种捕食螨胡瓜新小绥螨在中国的适生区分布预测
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国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD400600)


Prediction of the potential distribution of introduced predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris
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National Key Research and Development Program of China 2023YFD1400600

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    摘要:

    胡瓜新小绥螨(Neoseiulus cucumeris)是一种商业化的广食性生防天敌,可以防治多种农业害螨和害虫,具有重要的经济和生态价值。但是作为一种外来引种的捕食螨,它在我国的适生区域分布以及气候变化对其分布的影响尚不明确。根据胡瓜新小绥螨的现有分布点和19个生物气候因子,利用刀切法评估关键气候因素的重要性,并采用Maxent生态位模型分别预测了目前和未来气候条件下它在中国分布情况,分析了其在中国的潜在适生区域的变化。结果表明模型预测得到的受试者工作特征曲线ROC曲线下的面积AUC(Area under curve)值为0.87,表明模型的准确度好。最冷季节的降水量(Bio_19)、等温性(Bio_3)和气温季节性(Bio_4)是影响胡瓜新小绥螨适生性的最重要的环境因子, 对模型的贡献率分别为36.2%、25% 和18.1%。目前胡瓜新小绥螨的适生区面积约占我国陆地面积的60%,在未来气候条件下,其适生区域有进一步扩大的趋势,在2050年其中高度适生区域扩张至63%。不同时期胡瓜新小绥螨的分布中心比较稳定,均分布于四川省内,但有向东北迁移的趋势。本研究明确了胡瓜新小绥螨在中国适宜的释放区域及可能定殖的区域,为该引种天敌的合理利用提供了理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Neoseiulus cucumeris is generalist predatory mite with an extensive prey spectrum encompassing many small agricultural mites and pests, having significant economic and ecological importance as a globally commercialized biological control agent. Despite its early introduction to China, its suitable distribution areas in China and the potential influences of climate changes on its distribution remain predominantly uncharted. In this study, MaxEnt model was employed to predict its distribution in China currently and under climate changes at 2050S and 2070S with 19 bioclimatic variables. The AUC values predicted by the model were 0.87, indicating that the accuracy of the model was high. Three most important environmental variables affecting its distribution were precipitation of the coldest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and annual precipitation, with contribution rates of 36.2%, 25% and 18.1%, respectively. The analysis showed that the suitable area of N. cucumeris accounted for about 60% of China's total area currently. The suitable area of this predatory mite showed an expansion, would be 63% by 2050S under climate changes. Its distribution center was presently situated in Sichuan Province, with a projected shift towards northeastern China. This study clarified the suitable release areas and possible colonization areas of N. cucumeris in China, which provided a theoretical basis for the field application of this introduced natural enemy.

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李玉闯,郭倩倩,刘怀,李广云.引种捕食螨胡瓜新小绥螨在中国的适生区分布预测.生态学报,2024,44(12):5219~5229

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