Desertification is one of the regional ecological threats facing humanity today, and its occurrence is often accompanied by a series of ecological and environmental degradation issues, such as declining productivity of forested land, loss of land resources, loss of biodiversity, and weakening of the soil's carbon sequestration capacity, which in turn leads to reduced land fertility. As an ecologically fragile area with prominent desertification problems, the Tarim Basin is susceptible to both natural and anthropogenic factors, and it is the basis and prerequisite to monitor and assess desertification risks accurately for combating desertification. However, the single assessment method has certain limitations in desertification risk assessment, and the combination of subjective and objective methods can improve the accuracy of desertification risk assessment. This study established 16 index evaluation systems, including climate conditions, human activities and desertification monitoring status based on the "three-factor" theory, and constructed a Comprehensive Evaluation Index (CEI) of desertification risk by using the entropy-weight method combining subjective and objective factors, then the risk of desertification around Tarim Basin was evaluated. The results showed that: (1) Three-factor weight analysis showed that the exposure factor had the highest weight and the vulnerability factor had the lowest weight. (2) The western area around the Tarim Basin had lower desertification risk than the eastern area. The areas with higher risk, vulnerability and exposure were concentrated in the periphery of the oasis, and the risk of primary desert areas was lower, and the desertification edge area was more likely to occur. (3) The desertification risk in the area around the Tarim Basin was mainly very low risk. The high-risk areas were narrow, long, and sparsely distributed, mainly at the edge of oases and industrial and mining areas of residential areas. The desertification risk in primary desert areas was relatively low, and high-risk and extremely high-risk areas accounted for only 3.0% of the total area. (4) The results of exploring the effects of human activities and environmental factors on the spatial differentiation of the degree of desertification risk in the Ring-Tarim Basin region based on GeoDetector showed that: Single factor analysis method showed that land use type (0.68) was the main driving factor. The most influential variable combinations are: land use type ∩ livestock rate (0.78) and cropland area ∩ livestock rate (0.78), and the degree of desertification risk is mainly influenced by human factors. Human factors mainly influenced the degree of desertification risk. Rational land-use planning, along with the prohibition of arbitrary abandonment and expansion of arable land to achieve intensive and efficient management, is one of the effective strategies for desertification control. Our research accurately identifies the spatial distribution of regional desertification risks, analyzes their influencing factors and mechanisms, and effective provides a scientific basis for regional desertification prevention and control measures.