基于气候时滞效应和空间异质性对中国植被总初级生产力的模拟
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(42071241)


GPP simulation of vegetation in China based on time-lag effect and spatial heterogeneity
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    植物总初级生产力是定量描述生态系统固碳能力的重要指标,为了分析气候时空滞后效应和空间异质性对植被总初级生产力(GPP)的影响,以当年气象数据组(CC)、10年平均气象数据组(MC)和邻域气象数据组(FM)分别代表气候波动性、时间滞后效应和空间异质性,以及地形数据为自变量,构建随机森林模型,模拟了2000-2014年的历史时期的GPP值以及2015-2021年在SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585排放情景下的GPP值,计算模拟解释率,因子贡献率,最终确定最佳气象数据组。结果表明(1)地形因子中坡度对GPP的影响最大,气象因子中降水量对GPP的影响最大,整体而言GPP与地形因子较气象因子相关性强,是地形再分配气象因子的结果;(2)各时期GPP模型之间交叉模拟值与MODIS数据对比发现模型解释率R2均达到0.80以上,表明所建预测GPP的随机森林模型稳定性较强;(3)历史气象数据的GPP模型结果显示CC对当年GPP的解释率更高,表明气候波动性更好地展现当年气象与GPP间的关系;(4)基于历史时期和4种未来气候情景下3个气象数据组建立的模型之间交叉模拟,结果表明MC预测模型的解释率最高,表明该数据组稳定性最强,反过来采用4种未来气候情景下3个气象数据组的模型模拟历史时期的GPP,结果表明MC与其他两个气象数据组之间存在显著性差异(P<0.05),充分表明植被GPP响应气候具有时滞效应,并其影响程度显著大于气候的空间异质性和波动性,即前9年的气候持续影响植被GPP;(5)统计3个气象数据组在历史时期出现的概率,可知MC出现概率高的区域占比比其他两个数据组的大,在林地、灌木和草本三种景观类型中也出现相同的结论,另外MC对中高海拔和陡坡的预测能力比其他两个数据组的强,表明中高海拔地区在分配太阳辐射等复杂过程存在明显的时滞效应,而平缓地区易受当年和气候空间异质性影响。因本研究以10年为平均值计算单元,最佳时间滞后效应可能会比10年短或更长,需要进一步探讨,结论为气候变化背景下GPP模拟预测提供了最佳气象数据组。

    Abstract:

    Gross primary productivity (GPP) is an important indicator quantitatively describing the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. To analyze the influences of climatic properties on GPP prediction, the models were built by the 10-year average climatic dataset (MC), and the neighboring climatic dataset (FM) and current year climatic dataset (CC), by Random Forest model for each year, respectively. In the climatic properties, CC, MC, FM represent climatic fluctuation, the time-lag effect and spatial heterogeneity, respectively. The prediction period split into two stage, those was the historical GPP prediction from 2000 to 2014 and climate changed GPP prediction from 2015 to 2021 under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 emission scenarios. The model had highest explanatory rate indicated that the parameter in the model most accurately predicted the GPP than other climatic properties, and had high explanatory rate in cross-year predictions (eg. the model build on 2010 was used to predict the other years with the corresponding year parameters) was most stable than others. In addition, a climatic property had most close the input MODIS GPP, which dominate and determine the GPP. The results on above analysis showed that: (1) Slope was the most important variables among all variables, and the precipitation is the most important factors among climatic variables. In all GPP predictions, the GPP was more correlated with topographic variables than climatic variables in China; (2) The explanatory rate (R2) of each model was consistently above 0.8 in all predictions, including cross-year predictions among historical and climatic changed models. This indicated that all models were stable during these periods; (3) The GPP prediction for the current year using the current climate dataset had a higher explanatory rate compared to the other predictions. It also shaped more accurately the relationship between current climate and GPP better than the others; (4) However, the explanatory rates of the cross prediction among historical models and climate change models under four future emission scenarios resulted that MC had the highest explanatory rates than the others, and the difference from the others were statistically significant (P<0.05). The models built based on MC was most stable than the others. This clearly indicated that vegetation GPP has a time-lag effect in response to climate, and its impact is significantly greater than the spatial heterogeneity and fluctuation of climate, in other words, the climate in the first 9 years continues to affect vegetation GPP; (5) According to the statistics of the occurrence probability of the three climatic properties which had the minimum variation from MODIS GPP in the historical period, area with high occurrence probability of the MC was larger than that of the others. This same conclusion also appeared in the three landscape types of forest, shrub and grassland. Moreover, the prediction ability of MC for mid-high altitude and steep slope were more accurate than the other areas because of mountainous regions exhibit a time-lag effect by reallocating climatic factors (eg. solar radiation) more noticeably than flat regions, which are dominated by the current climate and spatial heterogeneity of the current climate. Therefore, the time-lag effect of climate explains the relation between climate and GPP than the others. However, the time-lag in climate was found to be 10 years in this paper. It is possible that the optimal time-lag is actually higher or lower than 10 years, and this aspect needs to be further explored. The conclusions of this paper outline the optimal spatial properties of climate for predicting GPP in the context of climate change.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

高越,布仁仓,熊在平,齐丽,刘洪顺.基于气候时滞效应和空间异质性对中国植被总初级生产力的模拟.生态学报,2024,44(17):7615~7630

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数: