The estimation of carbon and oxygen balance can quantify the balance state of regional natural and socio-economic systems from the source, which is of positive practical significance for realizing the goal of "double carbon" and promoting the high-quality development of the city. Based on the theory of carbon and oxygen balance, this study synthesizes the five types of carbon emission and oxygen consumption behaviors of the socio-economic system and the five sources of carbon sequestration and oxygen release in Urumqi's natural ecosystems. Furthermore, it constructs a carbon and oxygen balance estimation model to analyze the state of carbon and oxygen balance and the influencing factors. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon emissions and oxygen consumption increased annually, with carbon emissions growing at a faster rate. The average annual growth rates were 6.49% for carbon emissions and 5.10% for oxygen consumption. The period from 2000 to 2014 saw rapid growth, while growth slowed from 2014 to 2020, primarily due to industrial activities and transportation. (2) From 2000 to 2020, carbon fixation and oxygen release showed a slight overall declining trend, with an average annual rate of change of -0.12%. During the study period, grasslands were the primary land type for carbon fixation and oxygen release, followed by woodlands, while urban green spaces demonstrated significant potential. The trends in carbon sequestration and oxygen release across ecosystems closely aligned with changes in the area of each land type. (3) Over the past 20 years, Urumqi has been in a state of carbon and oxygen imbalance, which has worsened annually. The carbon balance index ranged from -0.61 to -0.88, while the oxygen balance index ranged from -0.58 to -0.83. The pressure between carbon emissions and carbon sequestration is greater than that between oxygen consumption and oxygen release. The CO₂ sequestered and O₂ released by the natural ecosystem cannot offset the CO₂ emissions and O₂ consumption by the socio-economic system. (4) The scale of urbanization, the ecological status of the city, the energy structure and the economic development are the most important factors driving the change of carbon and oxygen balance in Urumqi. Avoiding disorderly urban expansion, building a clean energy system and consolidating the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem are effective measures for regulating the carbon and oxygen balance state in Urumqi. This study provides data references and suggestions of carbon and oxygen balance regulation for the realization of the goal and path of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization" in Urumqi.