中国碳排放脱钩效应、时空特征与驱动因素
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国家社会科学基金项目(23BTJ029);陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学项目(2023-CX-RKX-106);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(300102233604)


Research on the decoupling effect, spatio-temporal characteristics, and driving factors of carbon emissions in China
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    摘要:

    “双碳”目标使中国面临巨大的碳减排压力,寻求一条低碳转型之路已成为中国面临的挑战,而揭示经济增长与碳排放之间的脱钩关系,是中国寻求低碳经济发展的关键突破点。基于IPCC碳核算方法和Tapio脱钩模型,对中国经济增长与碳排放的脱钩效应以及时空特征进行探讨,并利用IDA-PDA综合分析法对碳排放脱钩效应的驱动因素进行分解。结果表明:①2005-2019年,中国整体的碳排放脱钩指数呈波动下降趋势,以"弱脱钩"为主,脱钩状态良好。②中国东部和中部地区碳排放脱钩状态较好,在2015-2019年达到强脱钩;西部地区虽仍处于弱脱钩阶段,但碳排放脱钩指数显著降低;同时,中国各省份间脱钩状态差别较大,碳排放脱钩指数总体呈西北高、东南低的分布格局。③对于驱动因素的贡献度,要素替代和技术进步是促进中国碳排放脱钩的关键因素,经济水平是抑制中国碳排放脱钩最主要的因素。能源结构、效率变动、人口规模对中国碳排放脱钩主要表现为抑制作用。④对于地区的贡献度,2005-2010年,东部地区对中国碳排放脱钩的抑制作用最强;2010-2012年,东部地区对中国碳排放脱钩的抑制作用逐渐减小,西部地区对中国碳排放脱钩的抑制作用逐渐增强;2012-2019年,三大地区对中国碳排放脱钩的作用不稳定,变化较大。

    Abstract:

    The "dual carbon" goal puts China under tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Seeking a low-carbon transition has become a challenge for China. Revealing the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is a key breakthrough point for China to pursue the development of low-carbon economy. Based on the IPCC carbon accounting method and Tapio decoupling model, this paper explores the decoupling effect of China's economic growth and carbon emissions as well as the spatio-temporal characteristics, and decomposes the drivers of the decoupling effect of carbon emissions by using the IDA-PDA integrated analysis method. The results show that: ① From 2005 to 2019, the overall decoupling index of carbon emissions in China presented a fluctuating downward trend, mainly weak decoupling, and had a good decoupling status. ②The decoupling status of carbon emissions in the eastern and central regions of China was better, reaching strong decoupling in 2015-2019. The decoupling index of carbon emissions in the western region was significantly lower, although it was still in the weak decoupling stage. Besides, the decoupling status varied greatly among Chinese provinces, and the decoupling index of carbon emissions in general showed a distribution pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. ③ For the contribution of drivers, factor substitution and technological progress are the key factors that promote the decoupling of China's carbon emissions, and economic level is the most important factor that inhibits the decoupling of China's carbon emissions. Energy structure, efficiency changes, and population size mainly show inhibitory effects on the decoupling of China's carbon emissions. ④ For the contribution of regions, from 2005 to 2010, the eastern region had the strongest inhibitory effect on China's carbon emissions decoupling. From 2010 to 2012, the inhibitory effect of eastern regions on China's carbon emission decoupling gradually decreased, and the inhibitory effect of western regions on China's carbon emission decoupling gradually increased. From 2012 to 2019, the roles of three major regions on China's carbon emission decoupling were unstable and changes considerably.

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王奕淇,黄涵祝.中国碳排放脱钩效应、时空特征与驱动因素.生态学报,2024,44(6):2228~2243

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