Based on InVEST model, the quantitative evaluation was conducted for the impact of cultivated land occupancy and compensation area temporal and spatial changes on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2020. The degree of spatial agglomeration of carbon storage changes caused by the cultivated land occupancy and compensation was explored at the level of county administrative units. PLUS model was used to simulate the change of land use pattern and carbon storage under four future development scenarios. Based on the research, the following results were obtained:(1) from 2000 to 2020, the net change rate of cultivated land area in Hubei Province was -3.89%, indicating a slight decrease in cultivated land area. It basically achieved a balance between the number of cultivated land occupation and compensation. (2) From 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010, 2010 to 2015, and 2015 to 2020, the proportions of carbon storage changes caused by the cultivated land occupancy and compensation accounted for 68.45%, 59.45%, 57.86%, 55.46%, respectively. The overall proportion in the past 20 years was 61.38%. The changes in carbon storage of cultivated land had a huge impact on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem. The plot area of carbon sequestration was 1.29×10⁵ hm², while the plot area of carbon loss was 3.88×10⁵ hm². (3) From 2000 to 2020, the changes in carbon storage caused by cultivated land occupation and compensation in Hubei Province had obvious spatial aggregation. The "high and high aggregation" areas were mainly distributed in the western and southwestern mountainous areas, while the "low and low aggregation" areas were located in the Jianghan Plain in the central and southern parts of the province. (4) From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem in Hubei Province will decrease by 5.50×10⁶ t under natural development scenario, 1.22×10⁶ t under cultivated land protection scenario, 8.89×10⁶ t under urban development scenario, and increase by 2.43×10⁶ t under ecological protection scenario. Compared with the other three scenarios, the ecological protection scenario is the optimal scenario for future development. Through quantitatively assessing the impact of temporal and spatial changes in the cultivated land area on regional carbon storage in Hubei Province under the background of the cropland balance policy, the study provides decision-making basis and scientific reference for future territorial spatial planning and the formulation of carbon sink increase policy, which is of great significance for realizing the sustainable utilization of land resources and ecological environmental protection.