海平面上升对粤港澳大湾区沿海生境脆弱性评估
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国家自然科学基金项目(32271735);国家自然科学基金项目(52078004); 国家社会科学基金项目(20BG117); 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2021A1515012246)


Vulnerability assessment of coastal habitats in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from sea-level rise
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National Natural Science Foundation of China,

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    摘要:

    全球气候变暖所导致的海平面上升和快速城镇化将对沿海生境的分布和景观格局造成重大影响。评估海平面上升影响下的滨海湿地的脆弱性是对区域生态环境进行修复治理的重要依据。以粤港澳大湾区为例,基于SLAMM模型和Fragstas模型,针对六种海平面上升和土地利用耦合情景,对红树林、盐沼和潮滩三类海岸生境在2100年的面积变化、分布状况和脆弱程度进行了预测和分析。结果表明:1) 随着海平面上升,红树林和潮滩生境遭受严重退化。其中,红树林高脆弱性区主要分布在西江口、珠江口和黄茅海东岸。潮滩高脆弱性区则平均分布在大湾区沿海地带。相比之下,盐沼生境受海平面上升的影响较小。2) 与红树林和潮滩相比,土地利用模式对盐沼生境的影响最为显著。在保护已开发用地的情景下,珠江口西侧的盐沼面积大幅增加,脆弱性程度低。在保护所有旱地的情景下,盐沼生境面积虽然基本维持,但景观格局破坏严重,脆弱性程度高。本研究建议针对高脆弱区,动态调整土地利用策略,清理沿海湿地向内迁移的空间,增强沿海生境应对海平面上升的适应性。本研究可为沿海湿地的管理和保护提供科学支持。

    Abstract:

    The rising sea levels caused by global climate change and rapid urbanization will have a significant impact on the distribution and landscape patterns of coastal habitats. Assessing the vulnerability of coastal wetlands under the influence of sea level rise is an important basis for ecological restoration and management of the regional environment. Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example, this study used the SLAMM model and Fragstas model to predict and analyze the changes in area, distribution, and vulnerability of mangroves, salt marshes, and tidal flats under six scenarios of sea level rise and land use coupling by the year 2100. The results showed that: 1) With the rising sea levels, mangroves and tidal flats are experiencing severe degradation. The high vulnerability zones of mangroves are mainly distributed in the estuaries of the Xi Jiang River, Zhu Jiang River, and the east coast of the Huang Mao Sea. The high vulnerability zones of tidal flats are evenly distributed along the coastal areas of the Greater Bay Area. In comparison, salt marsh habitats are less affected by sea level rise. 2) Compared to mangroves and tidal flats, land use patterns have the most significant impact on salt marsh habitats. Under the scenario of protecting the developed land, the salt marsh area in the western part of the Zhu Jiang River estuary significantly increases with low vulnerability. Under the scenario of protecting all upland areas, although the salt marsh habitat area is maintained, the landscape pattern is severely disrupted, resulting in high vulnerability. The study suggests dynamically adjusting land use strategies for high-vulnerability areas, clearing space for coastal wetlands to migrate inland, and enhancing the adaptability of coastal habitats to sea level rise. The findings can provide scientific support for the management and protection of coastal wetlands.

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董欣怡,祝明建,栾博,管少平,林丰泽.海平面上升对粤港澳大湾区沿海生境脆弱性评估.生态学报,2024,44(12):5116~5127

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