基于系统动力学的北京市再生水利用潜力与生态网络特征分析
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湖南省科技创新计划资助(2023RC4008);国家自然科学基金项目(72091511,72103022)


System dynamics-based analysis of the potential and ecological network characteristics of Beijing's reclaimed water system
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The Science and technology innovation Program of Hunan Province (2023RC4008);National Natural Science Foundation of China (72091511,72103022)

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    摘要:

    为应对再生水利用的潜在风险,有必要对再生水利用与再生水系统网络稳定性之间的不确定性关系展开研究。以北京市为研究区域,基于2015-2020年再生水需求、供给、利用及其影响因素,采用系统动力学方法构建了再生水供需模型,揭示了2020-2050年再生水供需变化特征,并确定了7种工业再生水使用情景下的生态环境、生活、工业、污水处理和再生水利用部门间用水变化。此外,基于生态网络分析方法,分析了再生水系统网络系统代谢效率、冗余和部门关系特征,揭示了再生水系统鲁棒性水平和互惠程度。研究结果表明:(1)再生水系统模拟值与现实值的误差小于10%,所构建再生水系统动力学模型能准确反馈再生水各变量间因果关系。经模拟发现,北京市2015-2050年再生水供给量增幅(2.55%)远低于再生水需求量增幅(2.82%)。(2)2020-2050年各情景下再生水系统平均鲁棒性指数呈现"先上升后下降"趋势。(3)在工业再生水比例为0.45时,再生水系统平均鲁棒性指数达到最大值0.28。此时再生水大量流入工业部门,形成工业对再生水的依赖,从而大大减少工业用水压力。通过结合系统动力学与生态网络方法,明晰了工业再生水潜力,为北京市工业部门节约用水提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Given the potential risks of reclaimed water usage, the uncertain relationship between reclaimed water usage and the stability of the network of reclaimed water system should be explored. Based on the system dynamics approach and the factors affecting the supply, demand and usage of reclaimed water from 2015 to 2020, this study constructed a model for reclaimed water supply and demand in Beijing. We characterized the changes in reclaimed water supply and demand from 2020 to 2050, and identified the water use network changes between the domestic, industrial and environmental sectors under seven scenarios of industrial reclaimed water use. Based on ecological network analysis method, the system metabolic efficiency, redundancy and sectoral interaction characteristics of the reclaimed water network were further examined, revealing the level of robustness and reciprocity in reclaimed water system. The results showed that: (1) there was less than 10% discrepancy between the simulated and actual values of the reclaimed water system. The reclaimed water system dynamics model offered precise feedback on the causal relationship between factors related to reclaimed water. The growth rate of reclaimed water supply (2.55%) in Beijing from 2015 to 2050 was much lower than the growth rate of reclaimed water demand (2.82%). (2) The average robustness index exhibited a trend of "first rising then declining" under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050. (3) The average robustness index reached a maximum of 0.28 when the industrial reclaimed water ratio was 0.45. At this point, a large amount of reclaimed water entered the industrial sector, creating a dependency on it and greatly reducing the pressure associated with industrial water consumption. This study clarified the industrial reclaimed water potential by combining system dynamics and ecological networks and provided a reference for water conservation in the industrial sector in Beijing.

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陈银花,姜丰,王赛鸽,陈彬.基于系统动力学的北京市再生水利用潜力与生态网络特征分析.生态学报,2025,45(1):280~295

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