京津冀地区碳排放时空格局变化及其驱动因子
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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFE0117900)


Spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions and its driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
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National Key Research and Development Program of China

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    摘要:

    人类对陆地生态系统的改变是碳排放增加的主要原因。在"双碳"目标背景下探索土地利用变化与碳排放的动态关系,有助于区域土地低碳可持续利用。研究基于土地利用转移视角,采用重心-标准差椭圆方法揭示了京津冀地区土地利用碳排放时空格局演化特征,评估了碳排放与生态环境、社会经济发展的协调程度,并借助改进的Kaya模型和LMDI分解模型定量分析了土地利用变化对碳排放的影响程度。结果表明:(1)建设用地的转入是土地利用碳排放增加的主要来源,引起碳排放量增加15844.36万t;耕地、草地向林地、水域的转变促进了地区固碳能力的提升。(2)土地利用碳排放空间分布格局呈现出东北-西南方向向中心进一步聚集的趋势,并且东-西向聚集趋势大于南-北向。(3)京津冀地区整体碳排放与生态环境的协调性呈向好趋势发展,但大部分地区碳排放与社会经济发展出现失衡现象,地区间碳生产力差异逐渐增大。(4)经济水平是促进碳排放增加的最显著因素,单位GDP用地强度是抑制碳排放增加的最主要因素。分析结果表明,严格控制建设用地的无序扩张是促进低碳土地利用的基础,低碳经济发展是促进地区减碳的重要途径。

    Abstract:

    Human-induced terrestrial ecosystem modification is a significant cause of the increased carbon emissions. Consequently, in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, exploring the dynamic relationship between land use change and carbon emissions is conducive to low-carbon and sustainable utilization of regional land. From the perspective of land use transfer, this study uses gravity-standard deviational ellipse method to reveal the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions from land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. At the same time, the coordination degree between carbon emissions, ecological environment, and socioeconomic development is rationally evaluated by utilizing the Economy Contributive Coefficient and Ecological Support Coefficient. In addition, this paper also applies the modified Kaya and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) models to quantitatively analyze the influence extent of land use change on carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) the transfer of built-up land significantly contributed to the rise in carbon emissions, causing an increase in carbon emissions of 158.44 million, while the transfer of arable land and grassland to forest and water body enhanced the regional carbon sequestration capacity. (2) The land-use carbon emissions exhibited a spatial distribution pattern with northeast-southwest direction that converged towards the center, and the aggregation trend in the east-west direction exceeded that in the south-north. The total transfer distance of the net carbon emission center was 15.15km, of which 13.21km to the east and 6.41km to the north, with a 14.22% decrease in the standard deviation ellipse area, from 2005 to 2020. (3) The coordination between carbon emissions and the ecological environment in the BTH region was improving, but the imbalance between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development appeared in most cities, resulting in a widening disparity in carbon productivity among cities. (4) The influence direction of each driving factor on the carbon emissions of the BTH region as a whole and each individual city was approximately the same, but the influence strength of each driving factor varied for different areas due to the discrepancies in carbon emissions levels. Among which the economic level played a major role in promoting carbon emissions, while the land use intensity per unit of GDP emerged as the primary factor in mitigating the rise of carbon emissions. The analysis indicates that effectively managing the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land is the basis of promoting low-carbon land use, and promoting the development of a low-carbon economy is a significant approach to facilitate regional carbon reduction.

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陈靖松,张建军,李金龙,李山.京津冀地区碳排放时空格局变化及其驱动因子.生态学报,2024,44(6):2270~2283

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