Ecological profit and loss and carbon emission intensity are important indicators to measure ecological environment quality and economic development level. Analyzing the temporal and spatial correlations between the two and predicting the future evolution have a guiding effect on improving the health level of regional eco-environmental quality. This paper takes the Huaihai Economic Zone as the research object. The patch-generating land use simulation model, bivariate autocorrelation, coupling coordination and panel econometric regression model are used to predict and analyze the spatial and temporal correlations of carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss under three scenarios from 2000 to 2036, based on the land use data of 2000, 2010 and 2020. The results show that: (1) under the conventional development scenario and cultivated land protection, the ecology of Huaihai Economic Zone shows a downward trend. The ecological environment rises only in the ecological protection scenario, where the natural element is the dominant factor. (2) Under the conventional development scenario, the carbon emission in Huaihai Economic Zone gradually increases, while the cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario show a decreasing trend. Under all three states, the carbon emission intensity shows a decreasing trend, with a larger decrease in 2010-2020 and a larger decrease in the river water system area. (3) The carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss in Huaihai Economic Zone are negatively correlated. The low-low and low-high clusters are mainly distributed around urban construction land, high-low clusters are distributed in natural areas with less human interference. The high-high clusters are mainly located in the river area, which indicates the function of watershed to effectively reduce carbon emission intensity. (4) The coupling coordination between carbon emission intensity and ecological profit and loss in the Huaihai Economic Zone is high in the east and west, low in the middle area. The high coupling coordination is mainly distributed in low-high clusters, i.e., natural land areas, while the low coupling coordination degree is mainly distributed in the western plain region. Science and technology, economic development level, and the proportion of secondary production have positive effects on the coupling coordination, and urbanization rate and road density have negative effects. According to the study, the current land use mode in Huaihai Economic Zone is not conducive to the improvement of regional environmental quality. It is suggested to further strengthen the management and control of construction land, vigorously promote the construction of high-standard farmland and water area protection, and enhance the environmental quality and health level of major grain-producing areas by improving the quality of cultivated land and water area protection.