基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例
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国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD11004021)采用日期:2023-12-10


Identifying biodiversity priority conservation areas under climate change risks based on omnidirectional connectivity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
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    摘要:

    在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km2,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    In the context of planning priority conservation areas, it is essential to consider the potential risks posed by climate change in order to pay close attention to the dispersal patterns of species under the influence of climate-driven conditions. This research concerns by focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, a critical area for terrestrial mammals and biodiversity conservation. Employing the innovative Omniscape algorithm, which utilizes future bioclimatic data, topographic diversity data, and land use data, the study models landscape-level connectivity for terrestrial mammals during the mid-century period (2040-2061) under four kinds of climate change scenarios. This approach provides vital insights into how species distributions and connectivity patterns might evolve in response to changing climates. At the regional scale, one of the key findings is the gradual shift of high connectivity areas from plains to mountains due to climate change risks. This shift indicates a need for targeted conservation efforts in these emerging connectivity hotspots. The distribution of these areas is also expected to become more concentrated, emphasizing the importance of focusing conservation resources effectively. At the patch scale, the study uncovers significant differences in landscape connectivity. Forest edges show high connectivity, serving as vital corridors for species movement. Conversely, the connectivity of agricultural lands, particularly those adjacent to forests or grasslands, is notably lower. This disparity highlights the need for careful land-use management around critical habitats to maintain ecological corridors. A total of 51786 km2 of priority conservation areas are identified, categorized into protection, optimization, and restoration zones. The protection zone (56.4%) exhibits good connectivity currently and is expected to continue to do so in the future, indicating the effectiveness of existing conservation measures. The optimization zone (38.4%) requires habitat quality improvements to meet future connectivity demands, pointing to the necessity for proactive measures to enhance habitat resilience. The restoration zone (5.22%) faces high climate change risks, necessitating urgent ecological restoration to prevent future connectivity pinch points. Such points could severely impede species movement and survival, underscoring the importance of timely intervention in these areas. By evaluating omnidirectional connectivity under two scenarios in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this study provides a scientific basis for climate-adaptive planning in biodiversity conservation. It offers a framework for understanding potential shifts in ecological networks due to climate change and highlights the need for dynamic conservation strategies. These insights are crucial for informing policy decisions and guiding conservation efforts, ensuring the long-term preservation of biodiversity in this significant region.

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李怡啸,欧小杨,李昊冉,程哲,李晓溪,郑曦.基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例.生态学报,2024,44(3):1152~1163

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