Achievement of tourism carbon neutrality is crucial to the green and high-quality development and sustainability of tourism. This paper takes 30 provinces as the unit of analysis at the national scale. We measure and simulate the tourism carbon sinks of each province in the last 20 years and the next 40 years with the land use data, carbon absorption coefficients and gray prediction models. The dynamic changes between tourism carbon emissions and tourism carbon sinks are analyzed through the tourism carbon neutrality index, and the spatial and temporal differences of the tourism carbon neutrality index are explored by using spatial autocorrelation. The results show that:(1) in the next 40 years, the Chinese provincial tourism carbon sinks show a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the north and low in the middle, and most provincial tourism carbon sinks will be growing. The tourism carbon sinks in the northeastern region and the south regions of the Yangtze River Basin are relatively abundant, while those in Shandong, Jiangsu and Shanghai in eastern China are relatively scarce. (2) Among different scenarios, the low-carbon scenario has the best achievement of tourism carbon neutrality, with seven provinces, including Yunnan, Sichuan and Qinghai, before 2060. Only two provinces, Heilongjiang and Yunnan, achieve tourism carbon neutrality on time or ahead of schedule in both the medium and baseline scenarios. In all scenarios, the western and northern border provinces achieve tourism carbon neutrality better than other regions. (3) The tourism carbon neutrality index of each province in the next 40 years roughly shows a gradual shift from Class I to Class V zones, and the overall tourism carbon deficit rate of China will gradually decrease from 96.67% in 2030 to 76.67% in 2060. (4) In the next 40 years, the provincial tourism carbon neutrality index is generally in a spatial clustering situation, and the spatial distribution characteristics of hot spots and cold spots are more obvious, and the evolution trend is more stable. Among them, hot spots and sub-hot spots are mainly distributed in Northwest, Southwest, South, and Northeast China, while cold spots and sub-cold spots are concentrated in North China, Central China and East China. This paper effectively explores the theory and paradigm of tourism carbon neutrality research, and provides some realistic references for achieving China's tourism carbon neutrality.