Tetraena mongolica is an endemic relict plant species in China and is known as the "giant panda" of the plant world. Due to human activities such as excessive grazing, over-cultivation, and deforestation in the early stages, this species was once on the brink of extinction. Predicting the impact of climate change on its distribution range can provide a scientific basis and reference for the conservation and sustainable utilization of wild resources of Tetraena mongolica. Using 27 geographical distribution points and environmental data from 18 factors downloaded from the WorldClim website, the dominant environmental factors restricting the distribution pattern of Tetraena mongolica in China were predicted based on the optimized MaxEnt model. The results showed that by calling the ENMeval package in the R platform for model optimization, the model accuracy with optimized parameters (FC=LQHPT, RM=4) was higher than that with default parameters. The Area Under Curve values of the optimized MaxEnt model for the test dataset and the training dataset were both above 0.98. The total suitable area for the potential geographic distribution of modern Tetraena mongolica was approximately 124.45×10⁴ km², with a high suitability area of about 3.35×104 km². The high suitability area was mainly concentrated in the north of Alxa Zuoqi and Etoke Banner in the Inner Mongolia, south of the upper reaches of the Yellow River, east of Wuhai City and Bayan Nur City, and west of Ordos City. There were also a few distributions in Shizuishan City in the northern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and at the northern foot of Helan Mountain. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Tetraena mongolica were the driest month precipitation (36.95%), annual precipitation (14.83%), surface soil organic carbon content (11.21%), elevation (9.38%), average temperature of the driest quarter (6.28%), annual average temperature (5.49%), human activity factor (3.10%), surface gravel content (3.01%), isothermality (2.44%), surface soil carbonate or lime content (2.32%), surface soil PH (2.02%), and lowest temperature of the coldest month (1.32%). The analysis revealed that with climate warming, the additional suitable area for Tetraena mongolica would gradually shrink, and the current potential high suitability area might still be its future refuge. Its distribution center might shift eastward. The study provides a scientific reference for further clarifying the geographical distribution pattern of the suitable habitats for Tetraena mongolica in China and formulating effective protection strategies.