基于主体功能区的山西省碳排放时空特征及减排评价
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国家自然科学基金(U1910207);城市与区域生态国家重点实验室开放基金(SKLURE2022-2-2)


Spatio-temporal characteristics and reduction evaluation of carbon emission from the perspective of Major Function Oriented Zones, Shanxi Province
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National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1910207);Open Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology of China(SKLURE2022-2-2)

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    摘要:

    碳排放核算是落实温室气体减排目标、应对气候变化和实现可持续发展的重要基础。碳排放强度的变化趋势体现了碳减排成效,是主体功能区未来减排措施和低碳发展道路的选择与调整的重要依据。以我国典型高碳经济省份山西省为研究对象,采用BP神经网络模型,基于市级碳排放量、人口、GDP、夜间灯光总值、植被覆盖率、城市化水平构建了适用于主体功能区的碳排放核算模型,运用探索性空间数据分析、Dagum基尼系数和时间倾向率等方法,分析了主体功能区碳排放时空特征、碳排放区域差异并评价碳减排成效。结果表明:(1)从时间趋势来看,2006-2020年各主体功能区碳排放量呈现逐年增长的趋势,其增长率均表现为重点开发区域(48.08%)>农产品主产区(38.13%)>重点生态功能区(33.95%)的特征,与各区域的功能定位和产业结构显著相关。(2)从空间演变来看,主体功能区的空间集聚特征与山西省"两山夹一川"的独特地势相关。重点开发区域空间集聚格局较为稳定,集中在山西省中部,而农产品主产区、重点生态功能区的集聚特征不显著,分布在东部和西部。(3)碳排放区域差异分析表明山西省碳排放地区间总体差异呈现下降趋势,总体基尼系数由2006年的0.505下降到2020年的0.498,年均下降0.102%,重点开发区域和重点生态功能区之间的差异是总体差异的主要来源。(4)碳减排效果评价显示主体功能区碳排放强度均呈现下降趋势,重点开发区域的碳减排成效显著高于农产品主产区和重点生态功能区。基于对主体功能区碳排放的分析,结合其功能定位,针对性地提出主体功能区减排和低碳发展措施。本文为我国能源资源型省份制定和实施差异化节能减排政策提供了科学参考。

    Abstract:

    Carbon emission accounting is an important basis for achieving greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Clarifying the change of carbon emission intensity and evaluating the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction is vital to implement low-carbon development measures from the point of view of the Major Function Oriented Zones (MFOZs). This study took Shanxi Province, a typical province with high carbon economy, as the research object. In the MFOZs, the BP neural network model was adopted to build a carbon emission accounting model based on the district level carbon emission, population, GDP, the sum of digital number, vegetation coverage, and urbanization level. Using the methods of spatial auto-correlation analysis, Dagum Gini coefficient, and time propensity rate, this paper analyzed the carbon emission spatio-temporal characteristics and its regional differences, and evaluated the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction of the MFOZs in Shanxi Province. The results showed that:(1) from the perspective of time, the carbon emissions of the MFOZs presented an increasing trend from 2006 to 2020. The growth rate was in the order of the key development zone (48.08%)>the main agricultural production zone (38.13%)>the key ecological functional zone (33.95%), which was significantly related to the functional positioning and industrial structure of the MFOZs. (2) In terms of spatial evolution, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the MFOZs were linked to the unique topography of Shanxi Province. The spatial agglomeration pattern of the key development zone was relatively stable, while the main agricultural production zone and the key ecological functional zone were not significant. (3) The overall differences of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province presented a downward trend, and the total Gini coefficient decreased from 0.505 in 2006 to 0.498 in 2020, with an averagely annual decline of 0.102%. The difference among the MFOZs, especially the difference between the key development zone and the key ecological functional zone, was the main source of the overall difference. (4) The carbon emission intensity of the MFOZs exhibited on the decline, and the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction of the key development zone was significantly better than the main agricultural production zone and the key ecological functional zone. Based on the analysis of the carbon emission and combined with functional positioning of the MFOZs, the targeted measures for emission reduction and low-carbon development of the MFOZs were proposed. It is of scientific reference value to formulate and implement the differentiated energy saving and emission reduction policies for the Chinese energy resource-based provinces.

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李虹,张红,贺桂珍,张霄羽,刘勇.基于主体功能区的山西省碳排放时空特征及减排评价.生态学报,2024,44(1):143~153

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