Climate change has an important driving effect on the geographical distribution pattern of species. Global climate change and human activities have seriously threatened the living environment of Chamaecyparis hodginsii, and its wild resources are increasingly scarce. This study predicted the history of the geographical distribution pattern of Chamaecyparis hodginsii since the last interglacial period, and explored the influence mechanism of environmental factors on its potential distribution, so as to provide scientific basis for the resource protection and sustainable management of Chamaecyparis hodginsii. Based on 160 modern distribution sites of Chamaecyparis hodginsii and 10 environmental factors, MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential habitat of Chamaecyparis hodginsii under different climatic scenarios in the past, modern and future, and the influence mechanism of environmental factors on its geographical distribution were analyzed using contribution rate and permutation importance. The results showed that: (1) The current highly suitable distribution areas of Chamaecyparis hodginsii were mainly located in southern Zhejiang, Fujian, the junction of Hunan and Jiangxi, the junction of Hunan and Guangdong, and the junction of Hunan and Guangxi. (2) Under the four future climate change scenarios, the total suitable distribution area of Chamaecyparis hodginsii showed a shrinking trend compared with the contemporary distribution range, but its highly suitable distribution area showed an increasing trend compared with the current period except for 2090s-SSP126. (3) The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation of driest month (bio14), the precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18), elevation (elev), and the min temperature of coldest month (bio6) were the key factors that restricted the geographical distribution of Chamaecyparis hodginsii.