Ecological risk assessment and prediction of nature reserve is of great significance to regional natural resources protection and planning management. Taking Saihanwula National Nature Reserve as an example, based on the land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, we evaluated the landscape ecological risk of the study area based on the ecological risk index (ERI). Ecological security pattern was constructed by combining minimal cumulative resistance (MCR) model. In addition, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the evolution of land use and landscape ecological risk from 2030 to 2050, and corresponding strategies and measures were proposed for risk management and pattern optimization in the study area. The results showed that: (1) the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk in the study area was low in the north and high in the south, and the low risk areas accounted for a higher proportion. From 2000 to 2020, the overall landscape ecological risk decreased firstly and then increased; (2) important ecological function "points"——56 ecological sources, 49 ecological nodes, "axis"——144 ecological corridors, "surface"——three ecological function areas including ecological conservation area, ecological transition area, rational utilization area, together constituted the ecological security pattern of the study area; (3) From 2030 to 2050, the study area will mainly be low risk area, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of low in the north and high in the south. From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution, the landscape ecological risk of Saihanwula National Nature Reserve shows a decreasing trend from 2020 to 2050. The research results can provide reference for decision-making of ecological protection and management of nature reserves.