China is committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and contributing to the global goal of mitigating climate change. Achieving carbon neutrality requires reducing carbon emissions. One of the primary sources of carbon emissions from human activities is the change in land type. Sichuan Province is one of the core regions because it is rich in forest resources and has an essential economic and ecological status. For providing policy support from the land management perspective for carbon neutrality, this study predicts the land change and the carbon storage in Sichuan Province in 2030, considering the land use intensity and ecological-economic trade-offs. A method is proposed for estimating future carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems considering land use intensity. The results show that if Sichuan Province can balance economic and ecological benefits in the future, Sichuan Province can increase carbon storage by about 3% and increase GDP by about 34% in 2030 (compared with 2020) simultaneously. To achieve this goal, Sichuan Province needs to strengthen the protection and expansion of forest land and wetlands in plateau temperate humid/semi-humid areas and plateau subarctic semi-humid areas and promote the balanced development of cities in central subtropical humid region Sichuan Province, with Chengdu as the core.