Abstract:Because shark populations are at risk of decline due to climate change and human activities, conducting shark conservation priority studies is an important part of shark conservation efforts. We integrate climate velocity into the identification of conservation priorities for sharks, aiming to elucidate the shark conservation effectiveness and gaps in conservation efforts within China's surrounding waters. Furthermore, the study endeavors to predict the spatial distribution and changes of these conservation priorities for sharks under the influence of climate velocity. The shark habitats of 146 species simulated by the ensembled species distribution models were adopted as conservation targets. The opportunity costs of protection are associated with climate velocity under tow climate change scenarios from 2015 to 2100. Based on the principles of systematic conservation planning, this study simulate the current and future conservation priorities for sharks. The findings revealed that:(1) the hotspots of shark diversity could be found from the southern region of the Yangtze Estuary reaching to the Taiwan Strait, together with the coastal waters of the Beibu Gulf. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait was identified as an important area for the distribution of rare and endangered species. In comparison to endangered and vulnerable species, critically endangered species are less common and more concentrated in the South China Sea. (2) When the two climate scenarios are compared, it is discovered that the climate velocity under SSP585 is significantly higher than that under SSP126, the central and southern South China Sea would face a high climate change risk under both scenarios. However, the climate velocity in the coastal waters from the Yangtze Estuary to the Pearl River Estuary was relatively low, suggesting that the area could become a climate refuge. (3) Existing protected areas protected only 1.33% of the sea and less than 4% of shark species, indicating a significant protection gap. Most shark species could be protected if marine protection was increased to 10%. Furthermore, with a 30% protection rate, the habitat of rare and endangered species would be effectively protected. That is, if only the broad compatibility of species conservation is considered, low conservation ratios already have a good conservation effectiveness. However, when focusing on the conservation of rare and endangered species, a high conservation ratio is necessary. (4) The protection priorities would shift as a result of climate change, particularly in the South China Sea. If climate velocity is considered a cost in conservation planning, climate pressure in conservation priorities can be reduced by 25% while maintaining similar protection targets. In that case, the identified conservation priorities would have a high potential of climate change adaptation.