黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变及其影响因素
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国家自然科学基金青年项目(42001156);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2022MG055)


Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin
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    摘要:

    城市作为最复杂的社会生态系统,在经历经济快速积累、城镇化加快推进的同时,面临着资源短缺、环境污染、生物多样性锐减等生态环境挑战,增强城市生态韧性对城市可持续发展至关重要。从韧性的内涵角度评估城市生态韧性水平,探究城市防范内外生态风险能力的时空特征,剖析城市生态韧性差异的影响机制,对实施城市生态文明建设与风险防控具有指导意义。基于"演化韧性"视角从"抵抗-响应-转型"三个能力构建城市生态韧性指标体系,以黄河流域七大城市群59个地级市2011-2020年面板数据为例,运用熵权-逼近理想解排序法(熵权-TOPSIS法)、传统和空间马尔可夫链,在对黄河流域城市生态韧性进行定量测算的基础上,分析其时空特征。最后利用面板分位数回归深入探索黄河流域城市生态韧性影响因素的分段效应,提高对城市生态韧性影响机制的认识。结果表明:(1)2011-2020年,城市生态韧性均值在(0.092,0.125)范围内,呈现缓慢增长态势;离散程度呈倒"U"型变化特征趋势;空间上,城市生态韧性表现为"下游强、上中游弱",城市群内部以省会城市为核心向外围地级市递减,"中心-外围"的分布格局明显。(2)城市生态韧性主要在相邻等级之间进行递次转移,仍未实现跨等级转移,具有"路径依赖"和"自身锁定"特征;地理空间背景在城市生态韧性动态演变过程中发挥着重要作用,表现为"强强联合、低低临近"的集聚效应。(3)影响因素方面,经济发展水平、科技创新对城市生态韧性具有显著促进作用;产业结构对城市生态韧性表现为显著抑制作用,人口密度和环境规制对城市生态韧性不同分位点的影响作用存在显著的异质性。研究结果可为黄河流域全面推进生态保护与建设"韧性城市"提供一定的科学参考和理论依据。

    Abstract:

    As the most complex social ecosystem, cities are facing ecological challenges such as resource scarcity, environmental pollution, and sharp decline in biodiversity while experiencing rapid economic accumulation and accelerated urbanization. Strengthening urban ecological resilience is crucial for sustainable development of cities. Evaluating the level of urban ecological resilience from the perspective of resilience, exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of the city's ability to prevent internal and external ecological risks, and analyzing the impact mechanism of differences in urban ecological resilience have guiding significance for the implementation of urban ecological civilization construction and risk prevention and control. Based on the perspective of "evolutionary resilience", the urban ecological resilience index system is constructed from the three capabilities of "resistance-response-transformation". Taking the Panel data of 59 prefecture-level cities in seven urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin during 2011-2020 as an example, using entropy-TOPSIS, traditional and spatial Markov chain, based on the quantitative measurement of the urban ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin, its spatiotemporal characteristics are analyzed. Finally, the panel quantile regression is used to explore the segmentation effect of the influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin, and enhance the understanding of the influencing mechanism of urban ecological resilience. The results shows that: (1) The urban ecological resilience stayed within (0.092, 0.125) in 2011-2020, showing a slight upward trend, and "inverted U" dispersion tendency. In terms of spatial distribution, the urban ecological resilience is "strong along the downstream while weak along the upstream and midstream," and radiating while decreasing progressively from provincial capitals to the surrounding cities in an obvious "center-periphery" pattern. (2) The level of urban ecological resilience increased or decreased successively, but it has not yet achieved cross level transfer, with features of "path dependence" and "self-locking." The geographic background plays a vital role in the dynamic evolution of the resilience, manifesting as an agglomeration effect that "areas of high/low resilience cluster." (3) Influencing factors like the economic development and technological innovation have a significant promoting effect on urban ecological resilience, the industrial structure exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on urban ecological resilience, while the effects of population density and environmental regulations on different quantiles of urban ecological resilience exhibit significant heterogeneity. The results of the study can offer some scientific and theoretical reference and guidance on the ecological conservation and the construction of "resilient cities" in the Yellow River Basin.

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王松茂,牛金兰.黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变及其影响因素.生态学报,2023,43(20):8309~8320

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