Abstract:In the context of the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, it is important to simulate spatio-temporal pattern of production-living-ecological space and analysis of eco-environmental effects of the typical urban agglomerations in the Basin. This study took the Zhongyuan urban agglomeration as an example. Based on land use data for 2010, 2015 and 2020, coupled with the future land use simulation (FLUS), the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the eco-environmental effect model, we simulated the spatio-temporal pattern of production-living-ecological space in Zhongyuan urban agglomeration under five SSPs scenarios from 2025 to 2100, and analyzed the eco-environmental effects of different scenarios in 2035. The results show that: (1) from 2025 to 2100, except for SSP4 scenario, the area of production space will continue to shrink, the area of living space will expand significantly, and the area of ecological space decreases slightly under SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios. (2) Under the five SSPs scenarios, the spatial distribution pattern of PLES is relatively consistent. The urban living land presents the clustered distribution pattern, while the rural living land is relatively scattered in a dotted pattern. The agricultural productive land is large and evenly distributed. The woodland and pasture ecological land are mainly distributed in the west and south, and the water ecological land is distributed in an east-west strip in the middle and north of the Central Plains urban agglomeration. (3) In 2035, the spatial distribution of eco-environmental quality in the study area will be uneven, showing the characteristics of high in the southwest and low in the center. The ecological quality is higher in intermediate development scenario (SSP2) than in other scenarios. The results of the study will provide helpful reference for territorially spatial planning and ecological civilization construction in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration.