Natural ecological space is the place where living things live and multiply. Ecosystems composed of biotic and abiotic components provide ecosystem services on which humans depend. High-quality territorial space planning under the green development strategy in the new era needs to scientifically explore the mechanism of ecological space constraints. Taking Quanzhou City as the study area, and selecting ecosystem services such as water conservation, soil conservation, and biodiversity as ecological factors, an ecological soft constraint mechanism for urban expansion is constructed based on the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) algorithm. Comprehensively considering natural, human and other driving factors, the constructed OWA-FLUS model was used to carry out multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use dynamics in Quanzhou during 2005-2020 and 2020-2035. The results show that:(1) when the policy control factor δ=0.000001, the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of the OWA-FLUS model reached 95.94% and 0.7742, and the FoM and FoM_urban were improved by 4.95% and 7.17%, respectively, compared with the FLUS model. The efficacy index MICE based on the FoM value was 0.059 and 0.102, respectively. (2) When the value of δ changed from 0 to 1000, the simulation accuracy of the OWA-FLUS model gradually decreased. Compared with the weighted linear combination (WLC) ecological constraint with δ=1.0, the OWA simulation with δ=0.000001 had 5.70% increase in FoM_urban. (3) In 2035, there will be significantly spatial differences in urban area growth rates at the district/county scales and the township scale under the baseline, WLC, and OWA scenarios. Comparing the baseline and WLC scenarios, the urban area growth rate of counties and districts in the northwest of the study area decreased significantly under the OWA scenario, and Jinjiang and Shishi in the eastern and southern coastal plains showed greater development potential. In summary, the multi-scenario simulation and prediction of the dynamic spatiotemporal evolution of land use in Quanzhou based on the OWA-FLUS model can provide a scientific reference for the optimization of regional land space under the constraints of important ecological resources.