中国水-能-粮资源适配格局动态演化及其驱动因素
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国家自然科学基金(52225902,42001245,52070022)


Regional inequality of water-energy-food resources in China: Evolution trend and driving forces
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Funds of National Natural Science Foundation of China (52225902,42001245,52070022)

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    摘要:

    在水资源供需矛盾日益趋紧的背景下,定量分析"水-能"、"水-粮"资源空间适配格局及其动态演化趋势,可为不同地区间资源优化配置以及协同管理提供参考依据。系统核算了2000-2019年中国大陆30省(自治区、直辖市)粮食与能源生产的蓝水足迹,运用基尼系数及不平衡指数等方法综合测度我国水-能-粮资源空间适配格局的演变过程,并从资源禀赋和生产结构两方面解析了资源错配的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,反映粮-水空间适配的基尼系数保持在0.35左右,而能-水基尼系数呈现U型变化(G=0.43-0.62),总体上能源生产与水资源的空间错配程度更严重。(2)粮食、能源与水资源错配区域均呈现"北Ⅰ型、南Ⅱ型"的分布格局。研究期内,Ⅰ型错配省份均由北部、东部沿海向西部地区扩展,如黑龙江能-水关系由强-Ⅰ型错配转至轻-Ⅱ型错配。(3)水资源禀赋变化和稻谷种植规模北移共同驱动粮-水空间错配格局的演化;除黑龙江受原油减产影响较大外,火电空间布局及蓝水足迹的西移对能-水错配格局起到决定性作用。(4)粮食与水资源适配关系主要由自然属性、经济效益和农业扶持政策决定,而能-水适配主要受资源禀赋、区域经济差异和环境政策影响。推进我国水-能-粮资源可持续高效利用,亟需强化总体规划,优化空间布局与调整产业结构,提升用水效率及加强区域合作。

    Abstract:

    Critical geographical mismatch between limited water availability and increasing demand brings tremendous challenges to ensuring sustainable food and energy security in China. Most previous studies measuring the spatial mismatching characteristics are based on one paired nexus as food-water or energy-water, yet few have characterized the spatial-temporal variations of FEW nexus inequality and further investigated the hidden drivers under a unified system boundary when involving all the three subsystems. From a nexus perspective, the quantitative analysis of the inequality pattern and evolving trend would provide the sound basis for appropriate allocation and coordinated management of water-energy-food resources. Therefore, this study systematically calculated the blue water footprint of food (rice, wheat, maize, beans and tubers) and main water-consumptive energy (raw coal, crude oil, natural gas, thermal power generation) production in 30 provinces of mainland China during 2000-2019, aiming to characterize the inequality against water availability at both the national and regional scales, by combing the Gini coefficient and unbalanced index. Additionally, the driving forces in view of resources endowment and production structure were also identified. The results showed that:(1) the Gini coefficient of food-water nexus was always kept around 0.35 over the last two decades, while that for energy-water nexus was higher with a U-shaped symmetrical change (G=0.43-0.62), manifesting a greater spatial inequality between energy production and water availability at the national scale. In terms of different resource types, rice, as the water-intensive crop, performed best, compared with wheat, corn, raw coal and thermal power. (2) the food-water nexus and energy-water nexus both presented type-Ⅰ inequality in northern regions, which has extended westward from the northern and eastern coastal regions during the concern period, compared with type-Ⅱ in southern regions. Typically, Heilongjiang converted from significant type-Ⅰ inequality to low type-Ⅱ. (3) changes in water availability and rice production transfer to the north were the main causes of changes in food-water nexus inequality. While it was mainly due to the westward development of thermal power industries with regard to changes in energy-water nexus inequality, except for the greater impact by crude oil reduction in Heilongjiang province. (4) the spatial relationship of food-water resources was mainly affected by crop properties, economic benefits and agricultural policies, while it turned to fossil fuel reserves, economic disparities and environmental policies in terms of energy-water resources. Results obtained in this study could shed light on water-energy-food resources management, by strengthening general plan, optimizing spatial distribution, accelerating industrial restructuring, improving water use efficiency, and enhancing regional cooperation.

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李雨芩,张鹏鹏,张力小,郝岩,李心晴.中国水-能-粮资源适配格局动态演化及其驱动因素.生态学报,2023,43(21):8985~8997

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