黄河流域经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩关系及其驱动效应分析
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国家自然科学面上基金项目(42071144)


Decoupling relationship and driving effect between economic development and eco-environmental pressure in the Yellow River Basin
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071144)

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    摘要:

    经济发展与生态环境的协调平衡是推动黄河流域高质量发展的重要途径之一,这对区域经济一体化高质量发展和生态环境健康可持续具有重要的现实意义。以黄河流域379个区县为研究对象,基于熵值-TOPSIS综合评价法和Tapio脱钩模型动态解析1990-2018年经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩关系,引入结构分解模型(SDA)探讨影响生态环境压力的驱动因素,并运用因果诊断算法(PCMCI)推断驱动经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩的因果关联路径。结果表明:(1)黄河流域70%的区县生态环境压力处于较低压和低压,但因资源条件禀赋经济得以快速发展的内蒙古地区生态环境仍承载着较高压和高压。(2)生态环境压力主要受技术效应和经济效应驱动,技术效应的驱动作用实现经济产出并缓解了生态环境压力,经济效应的驱动作用在流域中下游地区更为突出。(3)黄河流域68.34%的区县实现了经济发展与生态环境压力的有效脱钩(强脱钩和弱脱钩),经济总量增长的同时减小了生态环境承载的压力,但黄河流域各区县经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩类型处于动态变化之中,应防范强脱钩或弱脱钩类型的区县倒退至负脱钩类型。(4)以乡村人口和城镇化率要素为代表的人口因子有效驱动了黄河流域经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩,其中乡村人口与脱钩指数出现因果关系的频率最高,城镇化率要素与脱钩指数的因果强度最大,农业技术因子主导了最多的区县实现经济发展与生态环境压力脱钩,农业结构多样化和农业集约化缓解了经济发展对生态环境的压力。研究结果对提高经济高质量发展与生态环境保护的可持续性具有可推广的实践价值。

    Abstract:

    The harmonious balance between economic development and the eco-environment is one of the essential ways to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin, which is of great practical significance to the high-quality development of regional economic integration and the healthy and sustainable ecosystem. This study takes 379 districts and counties in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects. The decoupling relationship between economic development and eco-environmental pressure from 1990 to 2018 was dynamically analyzed based on the Entropy-TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method and the Tapio decoupling model. We also introduced the structural decomposition model to explore the driving factors affecting the eco-environmental pressure, and used the PCMCI algorithm to infer the causal association paths driving the decoupling of economic development and eco-environmental pressure. The results demonstrate that:(1) 70% of the districts and counties are under low pressure in the Yellow River Basin, but the eco-environment in the Inner Mongolia, where the economy has developed rapidly due to the endowment of resource conditions, still carries high pressure. (2) The eco-environmental pressure is mainly driven by technical effects and economic effects. The driving effect of technology promotes the economic output and reduces the eco-environmental pressure, while the driving effect of the economy is more prominent in the middle and lower reaches of the Basin. (3) 68.34% of the districts and counties have achieved effective decoupling between economic development and eco-environmental pressure (strong decoupling and weak decoupling) in the Yellow River Basin. The total economic growth has reduced the pressure on the eco-environment load, but the type of decoupling between economic development and eco-environmental pressure is in dynamic changes. The districts and counties with strong or weak decoupling should be prevented from falling back to negative decoupling. (4) The demographic factors represented by rural population and urbanization rate effectively drive the decoupling of economic development from eco-environmental pressure in the Yellow River Basin. The rural population has the highest frequency of causality with the decoupling index and the urbanization rate has the most incredible causal intensity with the decoupling index. The agricultural technology factors dominate the decoupling of economic development from eco-environmental pressure in the largest number of districts and counties, and the diversification and intensification of farming structures alleviate the pressure of economic development on the eco-environment. The research has an implementable practical value for improving the sustainability of high-quality economic development and eco-environment protection.

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李思雅,梁伟,吕一河,纪秋磊,严建武,兰志洋.黄河流域经济发展与生态环境压力的脱钩关系及其驱动效应分析.生态学报,2023,43(13):5417~5431

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