Abstract:Butterfly, Chilades pandava (Horsfield) is a garden pest whose larvae harm the young leaves of the Sago Palm Cycas revoluta (Thunb). It has a serious impact on the growth and reproduction of Cycas revoluta, the economic prospects of growers, and the beauty of urban gardens. In this study, based on the existing distribution points of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta, we used MaxEnt, ArcGIS, and R software to predict the potential geographical distribution of Chilades pandava in China under current and future climate conditions and the potential geographical distribution of Cycas revoluta in China under the current climate condition. The current climate data used here were based on historical data from 1970 to 2000. The future data (2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080) were derived from three representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) under BCC-CSM2-MR in CMIP6. The results showed that:(1) the area under the curve (AUC) of the test subject working characteristic (ROC) of each model was higher than 0.95, suggesting that the accuracy of the models was very good. The mean diurnal range (bio2), isothermality (bio3), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) were the main climatic factors affecting the potential distribution of Chilades pandava. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the total areas of suitable habitats of Chilades pandava were found to account for 29.7% of the national land area, and highly suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River, including Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hong Kong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Fujian, Taiwan, southeast Sichuan, northern Chongqing, southern Anhui, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. (3) The overlapping suitable areas of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta accounted for 25.9% of the national area. (4) Under each of the future climate change scenario, the total suitable area for Chilades pandava growth would be greater than the total suitable area under the current climate conditions. In particular, the total area of highly suitable habitats increased significantly, including locations in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Tianjin, and Beijing. The total area of suitable habitat for Chilades pandava under the scenario SSP585 in 2061-2080 was found to be the largest, accounting for 41.33% of the national area, 1.1157 million km2 more than in the current climate. The study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of Chilades pandava and the protection of Cycas revoluta resources in China.