权衡生态保护与经济发展的土地利用多情景模拟
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四川省科技计划项目(2022JDJQ0015); 国家自然科学基金项目(42071222)


Land use multi-scenario simulation for balancing ecological protection and economic development
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    从土地利用视角切入,首先对龙门山过渡带的生态服务功能重要性与生态脆弱性进行了综合评价,采用自然断点法将生态服务功能重要性与脆弱性计算值进行分级,以此为基础结合研究区现状已划定生态保护区,划分生态综合评价等级为Ⅴ级的区域为规划约束情景下土地利用限制转换区,划分生态综合评价等级为Ⅳ级、Ⅴ级的区域为生态保护情景下土地利用限制转换区。设置自然发展情景研究区土地利用规律保持2010-2015年不变,规划约束情景在自然发展情景基础上将耕地、林地与水域、草地向建设用地转化的概率分别降低30%、20%与10%,生态保护情景在自然发展情景基础上将耕地向建设用地转化概率降低30%并补充于耕地向林地转化之上,将林地、草地向建设用地转化的概率降低50%。基于多情景土地利用模拟结果,提取待权衡用地斑块,划定生态综合评价结果Ⅴ级、坡度25°、地方林线海拔3500m为判定阈值,结合现状地类、主体功能区划定等因素进行多重逻辑判定,将多情景模拟结果进行集成,权衡判定后的集成方案既能很好地保护生态环境,又能较好兼顾研究区经济发展。

    Abstract:

    From the perspective of land use, we made a comprehensive assessment on the importance and vulnerability of ecological functions in the Longmen Mountain transition zone. The Natural Breaks method was adopted to classify the calculated values of the importance and vulnerability of ecological functions. Then we referenced the designated ecological reserves, the area with comprehensively ecological assessment grade Ⅴ was classified as the land use restriction conversion area under the planning-controlling situation, and the area with comprehensive ecological assessment grade Ⅳ and Ⅴ was classified as the land use restriction conversion area under the ecological-protecting situation. The regulation of land use in the research area with natural-developing situation was remained as 2010 to 2015. Compared with the natural-developing situation, the conversion probability under the planning-controlling situation of the cultivated land to the construction land was reduced by 30%, the conversion probabilities under the planning-controlling situation of the forest land and the water area to the construction land was reduced by 20%, and the conversion probability of grassland to the construction land was reduced by 10%, and all reduced parts remained the same as the original land type. And in the ecological-protecting situation, the conversion probability of the cultivated land to construction land was reduced by 30%, and this part of cultivated land was converted to forest land. And the conversion probabilities of forest land and grassland to construction land were reduced by 50%, and this part of forest land and grassland were remained the same as the original land type. In the three different situations, the cultivated land, forest land, water area and unused land in the research area were reduced, especially the cultivated land, which was reduced by more than 300km2. Under the planning-controlling situation, the cultivated land was reduced less than other two situations. The grassland and construction land were expanded, and the construction land increased quickly in the natural-developing situation. Based on the multi-scenario land use simulation results, we extracted the land patches that needed to be weighed. The decision thresholds were classified as Grade Ⅴ, slope 25°, and local forest line elevation of 3500m. Multiple logical decisions were made in combination with the current land class, main function zoning and other factors, and the multi-scenario simulation results were integrated. The integrated scheme can not only protect the ecological environment well, but also take into account the economic development of the research area.

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王森,彭立.权衡生态保护与经济发展的土地利用多情景模拟.生态学报,2023,43(23):9938~9951

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