亚洲象生境长时序变化及其对人象冲突的影响——基于融合MaxEnt与HSI模型的生境适宜性评价方法
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国家自然科学基金项目(41971239);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0402);云南大学第一届专业学位研究生实践创新项目(2021Y032)


Long time series changes of Asian elephant habitat and impacts on human-elephant conflict: based on habitat suitability evaluation method by combining MaxEnt and HSI models
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National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971239 , 41461017),Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0402)

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    摘要:

    生境变化直接关系到物种种群维持与人类安全,揭示其长期变化规律及其对人类的影响,可为物种保护与生境恢复提供科学支撑。但因受物种活动点数据获取与位置精度的局限,鲜见濒危、危险物种的长时序生境变化研究。以人象冲突频发的西双版纳勐海-普洱澜沧地区亚洲象种群(勐海-澜沧象群)活动区为例,提出融合MaxEnt与HSI模型的亚洲象长时序生境适宜性评价方法,即基于荟萃分析筛选出的15个亚洲象生境评价因子,结合近期有限的物种活动点监测数据,利用MaxEnt得到生境评价因子的贡献率,再运用HSI模型计算生境适宜性指数;利用该方法制作出研究区1988-2020年逐年时序的亚洲象生境适宜性图,以分析亚洲象生境的时空变化,将其与亚洲象肇事数据结合,进而分析人象冲突与生境变化的关联。结果表明:(1)基于物种生境偏好不变的前提,融合MaxEnt模型与HSI模型的生境适宜性评价方法可应用于物种的长时序生境评价,且基于亚洲象活动点数据从动物对生境利用的生态学视角定量获取亚洲象对各生境评价因子的偏好程度,使生境评价结果具有良好的生态可解释性;(2)目前亚洲象适宜生境面积占研究区面积三分之一(4039.76 km2),其主要分布于河流(如澜沧江、南郎河和南览河)干流沿岸,且生境适宜性随离河流距离增加而下降;(3)1988-2020年,研究区亚洲象最适生境面积减少4.7%(568.48 km2),其中2000-2013年减少尤为严重,占3%(362.89 km2);亚洲象生境斑块的连通性均显著降低,其中最适生境斑块的连通性降幅最大;而生境斑块数量增长了10.8%,生境景观破碎趋势明显;(4)1988-2020年间,研究区亚洲象生境退化面积占比为9.11%(1094.21 km2),且亚洲象肇事引发的人象冲突主要发生在研究区中部的生境退化区;此外研究发现,人类活动与自然环境变化导致的生境退化和生境景观格局变化是影响亚洲象肇事的主要因素。因此,深入认识亚洲象生境长期变化趋势与过程,据此逆序修复或恢复生境适宜性及连通性,科学提升亚洲象生境质量,以寻求亚洲象种群维持与人象冲突缓解,从而实现人象和谐与生态文明。

    Abstract:

    Habitat change features prominently in maintenance of species population and human security. Understanding the roles of historical habitat change in species protection are crucial for habitat management or restoration and evaluating effectiveness of species conservation. However, due to lack of spatially unbiased species occurrence data, mapping long-term changes of the endangered species' habitats remains unsolved. In this study, taking the range of Menghai-Lancang Asian elephant herd with frequent human-elephant conflicts as an example, a new habitat suitability evaluation method for mapping long-term changes of habitat was proposed. A total of 15 habitat evaluation factors were selected by meta-analysis. Based on the contribution rate of each evaluation factor to habitat quality derived from the MaxEnt model driven by Asian elephant occurrence point, we combined a habitat suitability index (HSI) model and the MaxEnt-derived contribution rates of habitat evaluation factors to evaluate the Asian elephant habitat suitability from 1988 to 2020. Based on the resultant long time-series habitat suitability of Asian elephants, we analyzed spatio-temporal dynamics of Asian elephant habitat and the relations between human-elephant conflicts and habitat landscape changes. Results show that: (1) under the premise of unchanged habitat preferences of species in the study period, the MaxEnt model and the HSI model could be integrated for the long-term habitat evaluation with the inherent relations between the habitat use of species and the environmental factors; (2) The area of existing suitable habitat accounted for one third of the study area (4039.76 km2), which were mainly distributed along the main streams of rivers (such as the Lancang River, Nanlang River and Nanlan River), and the habitat suitability decreased with the distance apart from the river; (3) The highly suitable habitat for Asian elephants decreased by 4.7% (568.48 km2) from 1988 to 2020, in which about 3% (362.89 km2) were lost from 2000 to 2013; the connectivity of habitat patches decreased significantly, especially for the optimum habitat patches; conversely, the number of habitat patches increased by 10.8%, indicating that habitat landscape fragmentation worsened; (4) The area of the degraded habitat accounted for 9.11% (1094.21 km2) in the study area from 1988 to 2020, and human elephant conflicts mainly occurred in the habitat degraded areas; moreover, habitat degradation and habitat fragmentation caused by human activities and modifications of natural environment were the main factors for the occurrences of human-elephant conflict accidents. Therefore, rehabilitating the connectivity of suitable habitat patches are urgently needed for thriving the Asian elephant population, mitigating human-elephant conflicts and boosting ecological civilization construction.

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张杰京,陈飞,谢菲,张鑫,尹文萍,樊辉.亚洲象生境长时序变化及其对人象冲突的影响——基于融合MaxEnt与HSI模型的生境适宜性评价方法.生态学报,2023,43(9):3807~3818

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