气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟
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国家林业局野生植物保护项目(2016ZWZY06);国家林业局重点学科项目(林人发[2016]21号);湖南省"双一流"培育学科项目(湘教通[2018]469号)


Potential distribution simulation of eight Firmiana species in China under climate change
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    摘要:

    中国梧桐属(Firmiana)在世界梧桐属中占比较大,且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种,灭绝风险大,研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据,基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵(Maxent)模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区,得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明:(1)梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲;(2) Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.9,表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度;(3)气候变化影响下除云南梧桐(Firmiana major)外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大;(4)中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向,南北向大跨度迁移较少,纬度变化不大;(5)丹霞梧桐(Firmiana danxiaensis)的稳定潜在适生区最小;(6)中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区;(7)中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部;(8)梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态,可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议,为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The Chinese genus Firmiana accounts for a large proportion of Firmiana in the world, and all other species except Firmiana simplex are endemic to China and have a narrow distribution range, with a high risk of extinction. It is of great significance to study the impact of climate change on Firmiana species distributed in China for the maintenance of biodiversity. Combining the distribution data of eight Firmiana species and CMIP6 climate data in multi periods, the Maxent model optimized by kuenm was used for potential suitable areas simulation in multi scales. The suitable scale for simulating potential suitable areas of the eight Firmiana species, area changes and migration direction of potential suitable areas, key conservation areas for Firmiana diversity and conservation gaps were studied. The results show that:(1) the suitable simulation scale for Firmiana is Asia; (2) The accuracy of Maxent model exceeds 0.9, indicating that the prediction results of the model are highly accurate; (3) Except for Firmiana major, most of the potential suitable areas of Firmiana species will expend in the future under climate change; (4) Migration direction of potential suitable areas of Firmiana species are mainly east and west, seldom large change in north and west, while latitudes don't change much; (5) The stably potentially suitable areas of Firmiana danxiaensis is smallest; (6) The key areas for Firmiana variation conservation are in Guangxi zhuang autonomous region, Yunnan, Guangdong, Hainan and other provinces and regions; (7) Conservation gap of Firmiana variation mainly distributed in middle Guangxi zhuang autonomous region and northern Hainan province; (8) Critical areas for the conservation of Firmiana diversity are eroded by man-made surfaces. The study analyzed the impact of climate change on the eight Firmiana species distributed in China, the changes of their potential habitat, and the conservation status of Firmiana diversity in China. It can provide relevant suggestions for the establishment of diversity conservation corridors for Firmiana in China, and provide references for the development of diversity conservation plans and corresponding measures.

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李芮芝,胡希军,韦宝婧,陈存友,金晓玲.气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟.生态学报,2023,43(14):5937~5955

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