密云水库流域多尺度景观生态风险时空演变趋势
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北京林业大学研究课题项目(2020HXFWSBXY016);北京市科技计划课题项目(Z221100005222013);国家科技重大专项项目(2018ZX07101005-03)


Spatio-temporal evolution trend of multi-scale landscape ecological risk in Miyun Reservoir watershed
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    摘要:

    密云水库作为北京重要的地表饮用水水源地、水资源战略储备基地受到广泛关注,相关研究多基于流域尺度,缺乏多尺度针对水源保护区的生态风险评价,开展多尺度生态风险评价有利于指导密云水库流域高质量和可持续发展。以1990、2000、2010和2018年4期土地利用数据为基础,基于景观指数,采用地统计学方法,分析流域土地利用类型及变化,从流域尺度、水源保护区尺度构建生态风险评价模型,揭示生态风险时空变化。结果表明:(1)流域内主要土地利用类型为林地和草地,随着城市扩张和"退耕还林"等政策实施,耕地和未利用地面积减少,建设用地面积增加,流域景观趋于复杂和分散,破碎化程度加剧;(2)生态风险区域在流域尺度呈"边缘高、中间低"的空间分布规律,高风险区域面积逐渐向低风险区域转移,高风险区域集中分布在流域边缘的南部密云区、兴隆县、赤城县和流域北部丰宁县,生态安全逐渐提高。(3)水源保护区尺度呈"中间高、边缘低"的空间分布规律,高风险面积逐渐减少且空间分布集中,生态风险趋于减弱。(4)流域景观生态风险呈正相关关系,Moran's I指数均大于0,分别为0.322、0.305、0.298和0.317,1990年莫兰(Moran's I)最大,空间相关性最强,"热点"区域逐年增加,是未来流域管控和规划的关键区域,局部空间自相关分布变化格局与景观生态风险分布变化趋于一致。

    Abstract:

    As an important surface drinking water source and water resource strategic reserve base in Beijing, Miyun Reservoir has attracted wide attention. Most of the relevant researches are based on watershed scale, and there is a lack of multi-scale ecological risk assessment for water resource protection areas. The multi-scale ecological risk assessment is conducive to guiding the high-quality and sustainable development of Miyun Reservoir watershed. In this study, the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 were used, based on the landscape index, using geostatistical method, we analyzed the watershed land use type change, we constructed an ecological risk assessment model from the scale of the basin and water source protection area to reveal the temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that:(1) the main land use types in the basin were forestland and grassland. With the urban expansion and the implementation of "returning farmland to forest" policy, the area of cultivated land and unused land decreased, and the area of construction land increased. The landscape of the basin became more complex and scattered, and the degree of fragmentation intensified. (2) Ecological risk areas showed a distribution pattern of high in the edge and low in the middle at the basin scale, and the area of high-risk areas gradually shifted to low-risk areas. The high-risk areas were concentrated in Miyun District,Xinglong County and Chicheng County in the south of the basin and Fengning County in the north of the basin, and the ecological security has been gradually improved.(3) The scale of water source protection areas showed a pattern of high in the middle and low in the edge. The area of high risk gradually decreased and the spatial distribution was concentrated, and the ecological risk tended to weaken.(4) There was positive correlation between landscape ecological risk and Moran's I index, which was 0.322, 0.305, 0.298 and 0.317, respectively. Moran's I was the largest in 1990 with the strongest spatial correlation, and the "hot spot" area increased year by year, which is the key area for future watershed control and planning. Locally spatial autocorrelation distribution pattern is consistent with landscape ecological risk distribution.

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刘可暄,王冬梅,魏源送,常国梁.密云水库流域多尺度景观生态风险时空演变趋势.生态学报,2023,43(1):105~117

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