Carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality are key means to address climate change. Based on carbon emissions accounting of the Golden Triangle of Southern Fujian Province (GTSF), China, a STIRPAT model is used to establish the functional relationship between carbon emissions and population size, urbanization rate, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, and industrial structure. Combined with the scenario analysis method, the target values of the above factors under various change rates are simulated to predicate carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity from 2021 to 2050. Providing time and technical path reference for carbon emissions peaking actions of the GTSF. In addition, the quadratic power of the GDP per capita indicator is adopted to verify the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The main findings are as follows:(1) Energy intensity has negative impact on carbon emissions of the GTSF, while other factors have positive impacts. Industrial structure and GDP per capita have the greatest and the least impacts on carbon emissions of the GTSF, respectively. (2) The coefficient between the quadratic power of the GDP per capita indicator and carbon emissions is positive, indicating that there is no inverted-U curve relationship between carbon emissions and GDP per capita. The relationship between carbon emissions and GDP per capita does not accord with the description of the EKC hypothesis. (3) In the baseline scenario, carbon emissions and carbon emissions intensity of the GTSF continue to increase. Carbon emissions will not peak. Carbon emissions intensity of Xiamen will continue to decline. In a low carbon scenario, Xiamen is most likely to achieve carbon emissions peaking in 2020. Carbon emissions of the GTSF will be peaked in 2030 in the scenario with a low-speed growth of positive factors, and a medium-speed decline of negative factors. The peak value of carbon emissions is 0.57×10⁸ tons. (4) In all scenarios, the carbon emissions reduction target of "carbon emissions intensity in 2030 is 60%-65% lower than that in 2005" will not be achieved. Based on the above conclusions, the following suggestions are provided for carbon emissions peaking of the GTSF:(1) Optimizing the industrial structure. For Zhangzhou and Quanzhou, it is urgent to upgrade production technologies, eliminate industries with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions, and develop high-end and intelligent manufacturing. (2) Optimizing the energy structure. We should build renewable energy projects, such as hydroelectric engineering in Zhangzhou, hydroelectric project in Xiamen, and thermal engineering in Quanzhou during the 14th Five-Year Plan, speed up the construction of the ultra-high voltage grid power grid, and reduce consumption of fossil fuels. (3) Carbon emissions peaking plans of Xiamen should be formulated to lead the peaking actions of the GTSF.