Abstract:Climate change threatens global biodiversity, and assessing the vulnerability of species is the key to study the impact of climate change on biodiversity. At present, the vulnerability of species is mainly evaluated by the changes in suitable areas or habitat of species. However, this single dimension ignores the influence of other components. Here, the study adopted a multi-component assessment framework, which incorporated four components of vulnerability, including changes in suitable areas for species, habitat fragmentation, changes in protected area and human disturbance. Then, an overall species vulnerability index was built based on the average vulnerability value of the four components. Such an evaluation procedure was applied to Armeniaca sibirica under climate change, a Chinese native tree species with higher economic and ecological value, to assess the species vulnerability under three shared socio-economic pathways (ssp126, ssp245, ssp585) in late 21st century (2061-2080). The results show that A. sibirica will mainly expand toward northeast and northwest of China, and the expansion areas are significantly larger than the disappearance areas. The degree of this difference depends on the social development pathways. The protected areas in suitable habitat will increase from the current 6.50×104km2 to 1.10×105km2 across climate change scenarios. The fragmentation of the suitable habitat will remain stable. The intensity of human disturbance will decrease in the suitable habitat. Compared comprehensively, the contribution of the protected area change to the overall vulnerability will exceed the contribution of the suitable habitat area change and other components of the species. The value of overall vulnerability index is 13.93, 21.04 and 31.41 for the species, which show that future climate change will have a positive impact on A. sibirica in the late 21st century. Multi-component assessment could more comprehensively assesses the vulnerability of species than that for a single indicator assessment. The results highlight the importance of protected area in multi-component assessment. Our study can not only provides a scientific basis for the adaptive management of A. sibirica to deal with climate change, and also provides a case support for evaluation of the vulnerability of other species at the regional scale.