Abstract:Climate change will have a significant impact on forest tree species structure, spatial structure and forest age structure. Accurately predicting the response of forest landscape succession to future climate change not only provides a theoretical basis for scientific management of forest ecosystems, but also plays an important role in formulating strategies for biodiversity conservation and rare species conservation. In this study, LANDIS Pro 7.0 and LINKAGES models were used to simulate forest landscape succession dynamics of eight tree species in Tianbaoyan National Nature Reserve under two different climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over the next 300 years, so as to analyze the forest vegetation landscape pattern change characteristics and its response to climate change. The results showed that the potential area distribution and landscape pattern index of Phyllostachys hetericycla, Pinus massoniana, Rhododendron simiarum, Tsuga longibracteata, and Cunninghamia lanceolata had significant responses to climate change. Under the climate change scenario, the fractal dimension index of each species ranged from 1.03 to 1.08, indicating that each landscape patch in the reserve was relatively simple and regular. For Phyllostachys hetericycla, Rhododendron simiarum and Cunninghamia lanceolate, the contagion index decreased while the patch density increased significantly. For Tsuga longibracteata, the contagion index was relatively high and patch density increased with the gradual decrease of area during succession. For Pinus massoniana, patch density increased slowly while contagion index first decreased and then increased. These results indicated that landscape integrity of these species was damaged to varying degrees with climate change, and landscape fragmentation was more serious under RCP8.5 climate scenario. However, climate change had no significant effect on broad-leaved forest and Cryptomeria fortunei. And for broad-leaved forest, the patch density decreased during succession while the patch aggregation increased steadily, and the potential area distribution showed a good momentum of development. Therefore, with the change of climate, the forest landscape succession in Tianbaoyan Nature Reserve will eventually evolve towards the community composition of evergreen broad-leaved forest, supplemented by mixed coniferous broad-leaved forest. And the forest landscape pattern of the nature reserve is more sensitive to climate change.