The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)
In the context of global climate change, rationally coordinating the relationship between low-carbon emission reduction and economic benefits, and then guiding the optimal allocation of land use, is of great significance for promoting the low-carbon transformation of the economy and society and enhancing the value of ecosystem services. In this paper, multiple objectives programming (MOP) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) were used to construct three future development scenarios for Beijing: natural evolution, economic priority and low-carbon development, and to simulate the value of land use and ecosystem services in 2030 under different scenarios. On this basis, we further identify the future ecosystem service improvement areas in Beijing, and expand the traditional multi-scenario land use simulation research. The results showed that: (1) there were differences in land use structure and spatial distribution under the three scenarios. Under the low-carbon development scenario, the expansion of construction land and the decrease of cropland in the southeastern plain were controlled effectively, and the woodland area in the northwestern mountainous area increased significantly. (2) The total value of ecosystem services under low-carbon development scenario was about 59 billion yuan, higher than that under the other two scenarios. In terms of spatial distribution, the area of service value improvement under this scenario was also significantly higher than the other scenarios. (3) Under the low-carbon development scenario, the area with high potential for improving ecosystem services in Beijing accounted for about 7.98%, the area with medium potential accounted for about 26.57%, and the area with low potential accounted for about 65.45%.