Abstract:Based on the perspective of quantitative evaluation, spatio-temporal identification, and driving factors analysis, this paper explored the patterns and changing types of the spatio-temporal evolution of regional carbon overload in the cities and counties of Fujian Province during 2000-2015. And we analyzed the spatial agglomeration and the key driver factors of regional carbon overload. Slope Analysis, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression Model were adopted in the above research. The results show that the total amount of carbon overload in Fujian Province continued to increase from the south to the north along the coast from 2000 to 2015. It showed an unbalanced development pattern of "high carbon-overload in the southeast and low carbon-overload in the northwest" in Fujian Province. Concretely, the most counties with H-H aggregation were distributed in Fuzhou City, Xiamen City, Quanzhou City and Zhangzhou City, and their agglomeration were decreasing, especially in the counties of Fuzhou City. Most inland counties had a carrying capacity of carbon load. And the counties with L-L aggregation were mainly round up in Nanping City, Sanming City and Longyan City. Besides, it performed a significant difference between the types of carbon-load change at the municipal scale and the county scale. E.g., the carbon overload in Ningde City and Sanming City showed a change to be exacerbating as a whole, while there existed some counties with slow decreasing carbon-overload in the two cities. In addition, it found that population growth, industrialization, and urbanization were the main driving factors of regional carbon overload in Fujian Province.