Abstract:Examining the impacts of landuse change on regional ecosystem services (ESs) under different scenarios in the future can provide effective support for the planning and decision-making of sustainable urban development. Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Urban Agglomeration as the study area, we first used the future landuse simulation (FLUS) model to simulate the land use pattern in 2045 under three different scenarios, covering nature development scenario (ND), the cultivated land protection scenario (CP), and ecological protection scenario (EP). Subsequently, we evaluated the habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR) and water purification capacity (WP) ESs by combining the FLUS and InVEST models. On this basis, a comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) was developed by the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) to reflect the total supply of multiple ESs in space and determine the impact of landuse change on ESs under different scenarios. Results show that:① FLUS model has high simulation accuracy and is suitable for landuse simulation in BTH. ② Under the EP scenario, except that the amount of WY declined by 2.47% compared to that in 2015, the rest four ESs increased significantly. The increased area was mainly found in the northwest mountainous area; Under the ND scenario, the expansion of urban land and rural settlements caused a large loss of CS and HQ; Under the CP scenario, the WP decreased significantly. ③ Under the ND scenario, the CES in BTH region suffered the greatest loss. The area with the most serious decline was mainly caused by the conversion of forest land to urban land and rural settlements, followed by the conversion of forest land to rural settlements, leading to HQ, CS and WC declining simultaneously. Under the EP scenario, the increase in forest land area promoted the simultaneous improvement of multiple ESs, and the CES in BTH region increased significantly, indicating that the EP scenario is the most conducive landuse scheme for sustainable development. While at the same time, attention should be paid to the possible shortage of water resources caused by a large number of afforestation, and the ecological environment should be protected according to local conditions. Our findings can provide reference for the formulation of regional sustainable development policies in BTH region, and provide new ideas for determining the impact of landuse change on ESs under different policy scenarios in the future.