Based on the background of global climate governance and the important position of the Yellow River Basin in the construction of ecological civilization in China, taking the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin as an example, this paper uses the improved IPAT model and Integrated Ecosystem Simulator (IBIS) to predict the change trend and peak of carbon emission in the study area from 2018 to 2060 under different scenarios. At the same time, the realization degree of carbon neutrality in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin in 2060 is also analyzed, combined with the simulation of carbon sink capacity. The results show that:(1) under the baseline scenario, energy-saving scenario, low-carbon scenario and extensive scenario, the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin will reach the peak of carbon emission in 2040, 2035, 2030 and 2050, with the peak carbon emissions of 122.09 million tons, 112.13 million tons, 97.84 million tons, and 176.35 million tons, respectively. (2) Under the IPCC RCP2.6 climate change scenario, the terrestrial ecosystem in the Inner Mongolian section of the Yellow River Basin shows a carbon sink effect, with the net primary productivity of 15.33 million tons. While under the RCP6.0 scenario, the terrestrial ecosystem presents a carbon source effect, with the net primary productivity of -5.06 million tons. (3) Considering carbon emission from energy consumption and carbon sink level comprehensively, under the RCP2.6 climate change scenario, the Mongolian section of the Yellow River Basin could achieve 18.42%, 22.37%, 34.46% and 9.90% of the carbon neutrality process in 2060 respectively, if the baseline, energy-saving, low-carbon and extensive scenarios are selected for carbon emission. While under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, it is difficult for the terrestrial ecosystem in the study area to contribute to the advancement of carbon neutrality because it appears as a carbon source. Therefore, for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin, it is necessary to scientifically formulate the time for the realization of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. In the future, we will do more to protect important carbon sink ecosystems and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration and carbon sink increase; to adjust energy consumption structure and increase the planning targets of renewable energy development; to establish carbon emission trading market and promote the flow of carbon indicators; to formulate the standards for carbon emissions from land use and improve the patterns of the territorial spatial.