基于CA-Markov和MSPA的绿色基础设施预测与时空演变分析——以京津冀城市群为例
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国家自然科学基金项目资助(42201471,72033005)


Prediction and spatiotemporal evolution analysis of green infrastructure based on CA-Markov and MSPA: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
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    摘要:

    绿色基础设施(Green Infrastructure,GI)的合理布局有助于建立国土空间绿色发展新模式。在生态文明和高质量发展背景下,研究GI长时序时空双维度演变格局对提升生态环境质量、提高国土空间治理能力和实现"碳中和"目标具有重要意义。基于CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov,CA-Markov)、MSPA (Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis,MSPA)和景观格局分析方法等构建GI研究模型框架,实现对GI过去-现在-未来的时空双维度分析。以京津冀城市群为研究区,分析了2000-2020年GI时空双维度演化特征,预测了未来2025和2030年的发展态势,讨论了协同发展过程与GI格局演变的对应关系,并总结GI优化启示。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,GI面积占研究区总面积的比例呈现逐年下降趋势,由90.82%降为86.60%,空间上表现为西北部密集、东南部稀疏的分布态势。核心作为GI的主要组成部分,面积占比57.04%-65.93%不等,同样呈现逐年下降趋势,其主要分布在研究区北部、西部和西北部。(2)2020-2030年,研究区GI面积小幅度下降,但核心面积占比增长明显,2030年占比高达84.04%。连接桥、边缘和环等其他GI类型面积占比较小,其分散分布在各核心之间。(3)城市群协同发展进程提速直接导致GI的波动,主要体现在2015-2020年实质发展期和2020-2025年国土空间规划加速落实期。(4)未来,京津冀城市群GI生态网络稳定性的提升需重点关注各城市中心GI的面积占比和东南部的连通性问题。研究结果为快速实现GI检查、评估和治理提供技术支撑,也有助于实现京津冀城市群建立绿色、低碳、可持续发展新模式。

    Abstract:

    The rational layout of green infrastructure (GI) is conducive to establishing a new model of green development of the territorial space. Under the background of ecological civilization and high-quality development, it is significant to explore the spatiotemporal dual-dimensional evolution pattern of GI in the long run. It could improve the quality of the ecological environment, enhance the spatial governance of territorial space, and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This study constructed a conceptual framework of GI that involved Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov), Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), and landscape pattern analysis methods to analyze the spatiotemporal dual-dimensional analysis of GI in the past, present, and future. We took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the study area. We first analyzed the spatiotemporal dual-dimensional evolution characteristics of GI from 2000 to 2020. Then we simulated the future development in 2025 and 2030. Furthermore, we discussed the correspondence between the collaborative development process and the pattern evolution of GI, and summarized the optimization insights of GI. The results showed that:(1) from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of the GI area in the study area decreased from 90.82% to 86.60%, which showed a downward trend year by year. The spatial distribution GI was dense in the northwest and sparse in the southeast. The core area accounted for 57.04% to 65.93% of the whole GI, which also emerged as a decreasing trend year by year. The core was mainly distributed in the northern, western, and northwestern parts of the study area. (2) From 2020 to 2030, although the area of GI will decline slightly, the percentage of the core area will grow significantly (84.04% in 2030). Other types of GI, such as bridge, edge, and loop, will have a smaller proportion of area. Spatially, these types will be scattered among the core. (3) The acceleration of the collaborative development of urban agglomerations directly led to fluctuations in GI's area, particularly in the substantial development period (2015-2020) and the accelerated implementation period (2020-2025). (4) In the future, the improvement of the stability of the ecological network of GI in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration should focus on the area percentage of GI in urban centers and the connectivity in the southeast of the study area. Our framework provides technical support for the rapid realization of inspection, assessment, and governance of GI. It also helps to establish a new green, low-carbon and sustainable development mode in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

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马银,郑敏睿,郑新奇,郭文华,刘孟兰,李佳阳,朱邦仁.基于CA-Markov和MSPA的绿色基础设施预测与时空演变分析——以京津冀城市群为例.生态学报,2023,43(16):6785~6797

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