Abstract:Phytophthora ramorum has widely spread in North America and Europe, which exerts a significant impact on the local forest ecosystem and economy. The main host plants of P. ramorum are widely distributed in China, and the climatic conditions are also suitable for the occurrence and spread of this pathogen. It is predicted to cause irreversible damage in China if this pathogen invades. Thus, it is necessary to conduct risk prediction and analysis of the possible occurrence areas of P. ramorum in China. In this study, we analyzed the geographic distribution and related climate data of P. ramorum based on the records and documents of the China National Pest Quarantine Information Platform and the WoldClim website. The dominant environmental variables were screened by SPSS software and the jackknife test. The distribution of potentially suitable areas of P. ramorum in China in different spans of modern (1970-2000), the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s scenarios was predicted using MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS software. The centroid transfer trajectory of high-risk areas of P. ramorum was calculated and drawn. The results show that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) values in different years and climates are all greater than 0.96, while the AUC values of the Test data are greater than 0.91. Those are significantly higher than the AUC values of the random model (0.500), indicating that the MaxEnt model is accurate and suitable for predicting the potential distribution of P. ramorum in China. Meanwhile, the coldest season precipitation, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, the mean temperature of the driest season, and the averagely annual precipitation are the main environmental variables that affect the distribution of P. ramorum in China. According to the forecast, the total areas of the potential suitable area of P. ramorum in China has increased under the three climatic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) of the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. In addition, the area growth rate of high-risk areas in the three future scenarios is greater than 45%. The prediction results of the centroid change in the high-risk area of P. ramorum show that the centroid movement track of the high-risk area of P. ramorum is within the scope of Jiangxi Province, and there is a trend of moving to the north. Most areas in South China, Central China, East China, and Southwest China belong to the pathogen's middle and high suitable areas. These results show the pathogen has the risk of invasion and spread in China, and its suitable area will be further expanded in the next 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, which will bring irreversible ecological disaster. Therefore, the quarantine measures should be strengthened to prevent the introduction of the diseased trees and other bacteria-carrying materials and to eliminate the possibility of invasion from the origin.