Abstract:Vegetation patterns are controlled by climate factors to some extent. In the context of climate change, the study of the change of vegetation potential distribution pattern by using bioclimatic index is of useful reference value for regional ecosystem response to climate change. From the perspective of eco-climatology, this paper studied the changes of vegetation potential distribution pattern in the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi Province from 1959 to 2020 and future climate model by using vegetation heat index which named effective warming index (EWI). The results showed that:(1) Climate warming led to the change of vegetation heat index, and the EWI of Qinling Mountain showed an increasing trend in the past 62 years, and increased abruptly in 2001. (2) Based on the EWI classification of the potential distribution of vegetation types in the Qinling Mountains, there was no warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved mixed forest on the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains before 2001, and the potential distribution of this type of vegetation appeared in the eastern Weihe River after the 21 century. (3) With the warming of the climate, the potential distribution areas of warm temperate vegetation continued to expand in the Qinling Mountains, while the suitable areas of temperate, cold temperate and alpine vegetation continued to shrink, and the elevation of the potential distribution areas of each vegetation type showed an upward trend. In terms of area and altitude variation, the vegetation on the southern slope was more sensitive to climate change than that on the northern slope, and the vegetation on the high altitude was more sensitive to climate change than that on the low altitude. (4) Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest and warm temperate mixed evergreen broadleaved forest may replace warm temperate deciduous broadleaved forest and develop into the largest vegetation type in the mountainous area of the Qinling Mountains in the next 50 years.