Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystem is an important indicator of the quality of carbon storage services, and the change of terrestrial ecosystem is closely related to the change of land-use. Therefore, predicting the land-use change in the study area is of great significance to understand the ecosystem service quality and their changes with time in the study area. At the same time, it can also characterize the level of regional economic development, environmental quality and provide some theoretical support for regional ecological protection, economic development and policy-making. Based on this theory, this paper uses the land-use data of Shiyang River Basin from 1980 to 2020, uses the InVEST model and the FLUS model to explore the temporal and spatial changes of carbon storage services in Shiyang River Basin in the past 40 years, and sets up three scenarios of natural change, ecological protection and farmland protection in 2030 according to the actual situation, to explores the impact of land-use change on carbon storage services in the basin in the next 10 years. The results show that the farmland, grassland and construction land in Shiyang River Basin increased year by year from 1980 to 2020. On the contrary, forest land, water area and unused land showed a decreasing trend in the general trend. During the 40 years, the carbon storage of Shiyang River Basin increased by 7.98×10⁶t, with an increase rate of 1.44%. At the same time, the carbon storage in Shiyang River Basin showed obviously spatial differentiation characteristics in space. The high-value areas of carbon storage were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Qilian Mountains, the oasis area in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. These areas are forest land and grassland concentrated distribution areas. It can be seen that the distribution pattern of carbon storage is closely related to the spatial distribution pattern of various types of land-use in the basin. By 2030, the carbon reserves of Shiyang River Basin under the three scenarios of natural change, ecological protection and farmland protection is 563×10⁶t, 563.43×10⁶t, 564.98×10⁶t, respectively, which is increased by 0.45%, 0.53% and 0.80% respectively compared with 2020. Compared with the other two scenarios, the ecological protection scenario not only protects the ecological environment but also ensures production, which is in line with the national ecological protection policy and has greater guiding significance for future land-use planning and is worthy of further promotion in the study area.