国家重点生态功能区生态-经济-社会系统耦合协调的动态演化——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例
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新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金青年项目(2021D01C107)


Dynamic evolution of ecological-economic-social system coupling coordination in national key ecological function areas: Take the Altay region of Xinjiang as an example
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    摘要:

    探究国家重点生态功能区生态-经济-社会系统耦合协调的演化特征,对实现可持续发展目标、建设美丽中国有重要意义。运用耦合协调模型、剪刀差方法、耦合度模型以及VAR模型对2007-2019年阿勒泰地区EES系统耦合协调度的动态演化进行分析。结果表明:(1)2007-2019年阿勒泰地区整体耦合协调度呈现不断上升趋势,由2007年的中度失调(0.271)向2019年的轻度失调(0.371)演进,生态系统与经济系统、社会系统的发展水平呈现"X"型变动趋势,经济系统与社会系统持续上升,而生态系统略微下降。(2)经济系统与社会系统、生态系统与社会系统演化速率的剪刀差在2014年以后出现较大幅度的波动,而生态系统与经济系统演化速率的剪刀差趋于稳定态势,生态系统与经济系统、经济系统与社会系统的耦合度呈现出由无序到有序的初始过渡。(3)由脉冲响应函数及方差分解可得,阿勒泰地区EES系统耦合协调水平的提升是三系统共同作用的结果,前期主要由社会系统、经济系统驱动,后期主要依赖生态系统的改善。研究表明:国家重点生态功能区应着重减轻经济系统对社会系统和生态系统的胁迫强度,进而实现三者的协同发展。

    Abstract:

    The national key ecological function areas in the western region are not only fragile in ecological environment, but also lagging in economic development and social public services. In the past several decades, the contradiction between ecology, economy, and society caused by human behavior has aroused widespread concern. Therefore, exploring the evolution characteristics of ecological-economic-social (EES) system coupling and coordination degree in the national key ecological function areas is of great significance for achieving sustainable development goals and building a beautiful China. In this paper, we use the coupling coordination model, scissors difference model, coupling degree model, and vector autoregressive model (VAR model) to explore and analyze the dynamic evolution of the coupling coordination degree of the EES system in the Altay region from 2007 to 2019. The results show that:(1) from 2007 to 2019, the overall coupling coordination degree of the Altay region in Xinjiang showed a rising trend, which was evolving from a moderate imbalance (0.271) in 2007 to a mild imbalance (0.371) in 2019. The development level of the ecological system and the development level of the economic system and the social system presented a trend of "X". Specifically, the development level of the economic system and the social system continued to rise, while the ecological system decreased slightly. (2) The scissors difference in the evolution rate of "the economic system and the social system" as well as "the ecological system and the social system" fluctuated significantly after 2014, while the scissors difference in the evolution rate of "the ecological system and the economic system" tended to be stable. The coupling degree of "the ecological system and the economic system" and "the economic system and the social system" showed an initial transition from disorder to order. (3) According to the analysis results of impulse response function and variance decomposition, the improvement of the coupling coordination degree of the EES system in the Altay region was the result of the interaction of the three systems. To be specific, in the early stage, it was mainly driven by the social system and the economic system, while in the late stage, it mainly depended on the improvement of the ecological system to promote the coupling coordination degree of the EES system. The research showed that the national key ecological function areas should focus on reducing the stress intensity of the economic system on the social system and the ecological system in the future, so as to achieve the coordinated development of the three systems.

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罗万云,王福博,戎铭倩.国家重点生态功能区生态-经济-社会系统耦合协调的动态演化——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例.生态学报,2022,42(12):4729~4741

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