Land is the foundation of all human activities and important guarantee for regional economic and social development. In order to explore the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island, based on the statistical data from 2009 to 2019, the TOPSIS and GM (1.1) models were used to evaluate and predict the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island from 2020 to 2030 from time series perspective. In addition, ArcGIS software and obstacle degree model were used to conduct dynamic analysis and obstacle degree diagnosis of the comprehensive land carrying capacity of cities and counties in 2015 and 2019. The results show that the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island is mainly affected by the economic and social subsystems. Although the level of comprehensive land carrying capacity fluctuated from 2009 to 2019, it showed a slow upward trend as a whole. The closeness value of water and soil resources and ecological environment subsystem showed a downward trend, while the closeness value of economic and social subsystem increased significantly. The prediction results show that the comprehensive land carrying capacity shows a continuous upward trend in 2020-2030. There are significant differences in the spatial dynamic changes of the comprehensive land carrying capacity. The overall performance is that the comprehensive carrying capacity of coastal cities and counties is higher than that of inland cities and counties. In 2015 and 2019, Haikou and Sanya were at a high level. Eight cities and counties were at the medium level in 2015, 11 cities and counties in 2019. And 8 cities and counties were at the low level in 2015, while only 5 cities and counties in 2019 and the sub-system carrying capacity of each city and county was significantly different. The analysis of obstacle degree shows that the economic subsystem had the highest obstacle degree in 2015 and 2019. In 2015, the obstacle factors mainly included economic density (X₉), fixed asset investment per land (X₁₂), effective irrigation rate of cultivated land (X₆) and GDP per capita (X₈). In 2019, the main obstacle factors were economic density (X₉), fixed asset investment per land (X₁₂), GDP per capita (X₈) and multiple cropping index (X₁₄). The level of economic development is the main factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in cities and counties. This word is expected to provide the scientific basis for ecological conservation and economic sustainable development in the construction process of Hainan Free Trade Port.